Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded near a two-week low versus the euro on speculation the global recovery is gathering momentum, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.
The U.S. currency extended losses this year against 12 of its 16 major counterparts after a South Korean report showed industrial production rose for a 17th straight month, adding to signs that Asian economies are picking up. The Australian dollar traded near the highest since 1982 versus the greenback before a U.S. report that's forecast to show initial jobless claims fell.
"There are a lot of real-money managers who are looking to put on long Asian-currencies positions going into 2011," said Kurt Magnus, executive director of foreign-exchange sales at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney. "It's a lot to do with growth. There's a clear move away from the dollar into Asia."
The dollar bought $1.3222 per euro at 8:53 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3225 in New York yesterday, after reaching $1.3275 on Dec. 28, the lowest level since Dec. 17.
Japan's currency was at 81.65 yen per dollar from 81.62 yesterday, after earlier touching 81.61, matching the strongest since Nov. 10. The yen has risen 13.9 percent this year, the best performance among its major peers versus the dollar. The euro fetched 107.97 yen from 107.94 yen.
Australia's dollar was at $1.0174 from $1.0179 yesterday, when it rose to $1.0184, the highest level since July 1982 before the December 1983 move by the nation to stop pegging the so-called Aussie to a trade-weighted basket of currencies.
The U.S. currency has lost 2.4 percent in 2010, according Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen has surged 12.8 percent this year, according to the index, which measures currency performance of 10 major trading partners, and the euro has slumped 10.7 percent in the period.
South Korea's industrial output expanded 10.4 percent in November from a year earlier, statistics Korea said in Gwacheon today. First-time filings for U.S. jobless insurance decreased to 415,000 in the week ended Dec. 25 from 420,000 in the previous week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the Labor Department report today.
Source: www.sfgate.com
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Strong 2011 net farm income could help lead to economic recovery
The farm sector will be a bright spot in the Missouri economy in 2011, says a University of Missouri economist.
“Net farm income is expected to exceed $3 billion, a milestone reached for the third time since 2004,” says Scott Brown, with MU Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). “More incredible is that farm income never topped $1.5 billion prior to 2004.”
Planted areas for soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum and harvested hay are expected to total near 14 million acres in 2011, Brown said. That is an increase of over 650,000 acres above 2010.
“This threshold has only been reached twice before in the last 25 years. Although 14 million was a common planted acreage in the state before 1986 when the Conservation Reserve Program began to expand.”
While a large part of the agricultural recovery comes on the crops side, Brown said, that higher feed prices will constrain expansion of the livestock sector.
However, prices paid for meat will continue to climb, as the U.S. economic recovery continues and a growing foreign demand.
As demand expands in the next couple of years, producers will see prices that offset higher input costs.
“While production costs have gone up sharply in recent years, the rate of increase should begin to drop, providing energy prices and other inputs remain stable.
In any outlook, farmers should keep in mind unpredictable weather, surges in energy prices and unexpected disease outbreaks, Brown said. All have negative impact on profitability.
“In spite of the bright outlook, Missouri producers should prepare for volatility that has hit agriculture recently.” Missouri production expenses increased from $5.5 billion in 2005 to nearly $7.5 billion in 2008, an increase of over 35 percent in three years,” Brown said.
In the past when crop prices increased rapidly, inflation grew. While some inflation is seen, there is nothing like previous times, Brown said.
The growth in crop acres comes not just from released CRP ground but also a return of double-crop acres. Because of weather, double-crop acres fell in 2009 and 2010.
In the USDA conservation reserve, farmers are paid rent to keep erodible land in grass instead of row crops.
Government payments to farmers will be down. With changes in the economy, Missouri producers are expected to see some of the lowest levels in government payments since 1998 during the next few years. High market prices for most commodities have reduced payments to only 5 percent of the total income for the farm sector from 2007 to 2009.
MU FAPRI maintains economic models of livestock and grains. The models give 10-year baseline projections for the U.S. Congress. FAPRI provides independent analysis of proposed farm legislation, including the farm bill. FAPRI is a part of the MU College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.
Source: WesternFarmPress.com
http://westernfarmpress.com
“Net farm income is expected to exceed $3 billion, a milestone reached for the third time since 2004,” says Scott Brown, with MU Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). “More incredible is that farm income never topped $1.5 billion prior to 2004.”
Planted areas for soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum and harvested hay are expected to total near 14 million acres in 2011, Brown said. That is an increase of over 650,000 acres above 2010.
“This threshold has only been reached twice before in the last 25 years. Although 14 million was a common planted acreage in the state before 1986 when the Conservation Reserve Program began to expand.”
While a large part of the agricultural recovery comes on the crops side, Brown said, that higher feed prices will constrain expansion of the livestock sector.
However, prices paid for meat will continue to climb, as the U.S. economic recovery continues and a growing foreign demand.
As demand expands in the next couple of years, producers will see prices that offset higher input costs.
“While production costs have gone up sharply in recent years, the rate of increase should begin to drop, providing energy prices and other inputs remain stable.
In any outlook, farmers should keep in mind unpredictable weather, surges in energy prices and unexpected disease outbreaks, Brown said. All have negative impact on profitability.
“In spite of the bright outlook, Missouri producers should prepare for volatility that has hit agriculture recently.” Missouri production expenses increased from $5.5 billion in 2005 to nearly $7.5 billion in 2008, an increase of over 35 percent in three years,” Brown said.
In the past when crop prices increased rapidly, inflation grew. While some inflation is seen, there is nothing like previous times, Brown said.
The growth in crop acres comes not just from released CRP ground but also a return of double-crop acres. Because of weather, double-crop acres fell in 2009 and 2010.
In the USDA conservation reserve, farmers are paid rent to keep erodible land in grass instead of row crops.
Government payments to farmers will be down. With changes in the economy, Missouri producers are expected to see some of the lowest levels in government payments since 1998 during the next few years. High market prices for most commodities have reduced payments to only 5 percent of the total income for the farm sector from 2007 to 2009.
MU FAPRI maintains economic models of livestock and grains. The models give 10-year baseline projections for the U.S. Congress. FAPRI provides independent analysis of proposed farm legislation, including the farm bill. FAPRI is a part of the MU College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.
Source: WesternFarmPress.com
http://westernfarmpress.com
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Northeastern Wisconsin economic recovery starts
The economy in Northeastern Wisconsin took a step toward improvement in 2010, and most hope it means an even more robust 2011.
The Green Bay area unemployment rate at the end of the year was at a level that 15 years ago would have been considered near full employment. But standards have changed, and 6.7 percent no longer meets expectations.
It is an improvement from 7.5 percent in November 2009 and the recent high of 9.1 percent in March 2009, but still means that at least 11,500 people in Brown, Kewaunee and Oconto counties are without jobs.
On the plus side, 159,800 people are working, up from 155,600 one year ago, reflecting a national trend of slow job growth.
The Green Bay area did not experience the mass layoffs during the recession that were seen in places such as Janesville, which lost its General Motors manufacturing plant. During the past year, a number companies, such as Humana Inc., SMT Machine & Tool Inc. of Howard and EMT International of Hobart, increased employment.
Banks in Northeastern Wisconsin continued working to get a handle on its balance sheets, but, as with manufacturing, the area suffered less than other regions.
One of the year's biggest business events for the region occurred this month, when Marshall & Ilsley Corp. announced it was being sold to BMO Financial Group in a $4.1 billion deal. BMO is the parent company of Bank of Montreal in Canada and Harris Bank in the United States.
M&I is the largest bank based in Wisconsin and has branches throughout the northeastern part of the state. The deal is expected to close at the end of July and will leave Associated Banc-Corp of Ashwaubenon as the state's largest home-based financial services company.
Another bank's problems provided an opportunity for Nicolet National Bank of Green Bay, which purchased four metro area branches of Madison-based AnchorBank, which was selling assets to keep from being among those taken over by regulators. The move more than doubled Nicolet's physical presence in the community.
The banking crisis is not over. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that 100 mostly smaller banks that received federal government bailout funds, including Legacy Bank of Milwaukee, are in danger of failing.
Home sales continued to lag in the region, as they have across the country. The collapse of the real estate bubble was one of the main causes of the recession, and its effects continue to be felt. According to the Wisconsin Realtors Association, 1,967 houses were sold in Brown County in 2010, compared with 2,382 in 2009 and 2,692 in 2007. December totals are not complete, but they would have to surpass any December in the last three years to bring 2010 total sales on par with 2009.
Real estate analysts have said throughout the recession and recovery that home prices held better in Wisconsin than many other states, and that's reflected in the Brown County numbers. Median home prices in Brown County in 2010 averaged $139,000, compared with $135,000 in 2009. They still trail 2007, though, when the average price was nearly $11,000 more.
A sign that consumers are spending a bit more is improving sales tax collections.
After seeing its receipts fall 7.3 percent from 2008 to 2009, the Green Bay/Brown County Professional Football Stadium District was down only 1 percent from 2009 to 2010.
Source: www.greenbaypressgazette.com
The Green Bay area unemployment rate at the end of the year was at a level that 15 years ago would have been considered near full employment. But standards have changed, and 6.7 percent no longer meets expectations.
It is an improvement from 7.5 percent in November 2009 and the recent high of 9.1 percent in March 2009, but still means that at least 11,500 people in Brown, Kewaunee and Oconto counties are without jobs.
On the plus side, 159,800 people are working, up from 155,600 one year ago, reflecting a national trend of slow job growth.
The Green Bay area did not experience the mass layoffs during the recession that were seen in places such as Janesville, which lost its General Motors manufacturing plant. During the past year, a number companies, such as Humana Inc., SMT Machine & Tool Inc. of Howard and EMT International of Hobart, increased employment.
Banks in Northeastern Wisconsin continued working to get a handle on its balance sheets, but, as with manufacturing, the area suffered less than other regions.
One of the year's biggest business events for the region occurred this month, when Marshall & Ilsley Corp. announced it was being sold to BMO Financial Group in a $4.1 billion deal. BMO is the parent company of Bank of Montreal in Canada and Harris Bank in the United States.
M&I is the largest bank based in Wisconsin and has branches throughout the northeastern part of the state. The deal is expected to close at the end of July and will leave Associated Banc-Corp of Ashwaubenon as the state's largest home-based financial services company.
Another bank's problems provided an opportunity for Nicolet National Bank of Green Bay, which purchased four metro area branches of Madison-based AnchorBank, which was selling assets to keep from being among those taken over by regulators. The move more than doubled Nicolet's physical presence in the community.
The banking crisis is not over. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that 100 mostly smaller banks that received federal government bailout funds, including Legacy Bank of Milwaukee, are in danger of failing.
Home sales continued to lag in the region, as they have across the country. The collapse of the real estate bubble was one of the main causes of the recession, and its effects continue to be felt. According to the Wisconsin Realtors Association, 1,967 houses were sold in Brown County in 2010, compared with 2,382 in 2009 and 2,692 in 2007. December totals are not complete, but they would have to surpass any December in the last three years to bring 2010 total sales on par with 2009.
Real estate analysts have said throughout the recession and recovery that home prices held better in Wisconsin than many other states, and that's reflected in the Brown County numbers. Median home prices in Brown County in 2010 averaged $139,000, compared with $135,000 in 2009. They still trail 2007, though, when the average price was nearly $11,000 more.
A sign that consumers are spending a bit more is improving sales tax collections.
After seeing its receipts fall 7.3 percent from 2008 to 2009, the Green Bay/Brown County Professional Football Stadium District was down only 1 percent from 2009 to 2010.
Source: www.greenbaypressgazette.com
Monday, December 27, 2010
Momentum May Drive a Tech-Industry Recovery in 2011
Executives in the tech industry expect the year-end momentum to carry over into 2011 with growth in both revenue and employment. A KPMG survey found that executives expect cloud computing and mobile applications to lead the way with growth rates above 10 percent. An analyst said the numbers indicate big business is buying again.
It's a thought-provoking headline, isn't it? After some ups and downs in 2010 -- welcome after the dips and twists of 2009 -- many industry watchers are bullish on a tech-industry recovery in 2011. The momentum that started to build in the second half of 2010 should continue next year as corporations and consumers alike loosen the purse strings.
Based on the information KPMG has received from U.S technology executives, Gary Matuszak, KPMG global chair for the information, communication and entertainment practice, is optimistic. In KPMG's most recent survey of tech executives, the firm found that business leaders expect significant improvement in 2010 over last year in revenue and employment, and they are more optimistic about next year.
"Almost nine out of 10 executives said they expect business conditions in the technology sector to improve in 2011, including stronger revenue," Matuszak said. "When participants were asked to name the biggest drivers of revenue growth over the next three years in the technology sector, 54 percent named cloud Relevant Products/Services computing, 51 percent said mobile Relevant Products/Services applications, 43 percent identified client computing/virtualization, and 42 percent said advanced analytics. About half the respondents believe the growth rate for both cloud computing and mobile applications could exceed 10 percent over the next two years."
Semiconductors Tell the Story
KPMG also recently completed a global survey of the semiconductor industry. Executives from that industry also expect solid increases in sales and workforce Relevant Products/Services growth in 2011. According to the KPMG survey, conducted in collaboration with the Semiconductor Industry Association, 78 percent of semiconductor executives expect revenue to grow by more than five percent next year.
"In looking at jobs, 29 percent of the respondents predict workforce growth of greater than five percent, compared to 23 percent in 2009," Matuszak said. "Our findings show that the semiconductor industry expects moderate growth next year, which is extraordinary in the context of an uneven global economic recovery. The continuing demand for electronic products ranging from tablets to smartphones, and an increased demand for technology integration in automobiles, will buoy semiconductor manufacturers as the economy fluctuates."
Bellwethers and Startups
Rob Enderle, principal analyst at the Enderle Group, said 2011 looks like a great year for tech sales and intellectual-property attorneys. Year-end numbers are looking good from the majors right now, with the exception of Best Buy -- which took a hit from online sellers like Amazon -- and Yahoo, which is being horridly run, Enderle said.
"HP, IBM, Oracle outside of hardware, and Microsoft Relevant Products/Services have all been strong coming into the end of the year, suggesting big business is buying again and the pent-up demand from lots of years of not replacing aging hardware should make for a strong 2011 if we don't have another financial crisis," Enderle said. "This last is a bit of a risk because the U.S. government isn't cooperating with itself very well at the moment and concerns of a double-dip recession are mounting as a result, which doesn't bode well for next year's sales."
Meanwhile, from an educational perspective, Professor Jonathan Askin at the Brooklyn Law School said he's already seeing early rumblings of a tech recovery, as angel and venture-capital money begins to flow back into the tech startup community.
"We see more and more startups being eyed as acquisition targets," Askin said. "Perhaps the only silver lining in our current unemployment situation is that many innovators and would-be entrepreneurs have seized the moment to work on their own ventures in the absence of having to report to work."
Source: NewsFactor Network
http://www.newsfactor.com
It's a thought-provoking headline, isn't it? After some ups and downs in 2010 -- welcome after the dips and twists of 2009 -- many industry watchers are bullish on a tech-industry recovery in 2011. The momentum that started to build in the second half of 2010 should continue next year as corporations and consumers alike loosen the purse strings.
Based on the information KPMG has received from U.S technology executives, Gary Matuszak, KPMG global chair for the information, communication and entertainment practice, is optimistic. In KPMG's most recent survey of tech executives, the firm found that business leaders expect significant improvement in 2010 over last year in revenue and employment, and they are more optimistic about next year.
"Almost nine out of 10 executives said they expect business conditions in the technology sector to improve in 2011, including stronger revenue," Matuszak said. "When participants were asked to name the biggest drivers of revenue growth over the next three years in the technology sector, 54 percent named cloud Relevant Products/Services computing, 51 percent said mobile Relevant Products/Services applications, 43 percent identified client computing/virtualization, and 42 percent said advanced analytics. About half the respondents believe the growth rate for both cloud computing and mobile applications could exceed 10 percent over the next two years."
Semiconductors Tell the Story
KPMG also recently completed a global survey of the semiconductor industry. Executives from that industry also expect solid increases in sales and workforce Relevant Products/Services growth in 2011. According to the KPMG survey, conducted in collaboration with the Semiconductor Industry Association, 78 percent of semiconductor executives expect revenue to grow by more than five percent next year.
"In looking at jobs, 29 percent of the respondents predict workforce growth of greater than five percent, compared to 23 percent in 2009," Matuszak said. "Our findings show that the semiconductor industry expects moderate growth next year, which is extraordinary in the context of an uneven global economic recovery. The continuing demand for electronic products ranging from tablets to smartphones, and an increased demand for technology integration in automobiles, will buoy semiconductor manufacturers as the economy fluctuates."
Bellwethers and Startups
Rob Enderle, principal analyst at the Enderle Group, said 2011 looks like a great year for tech sales and intellectual-property attorneys. Year-end numbers are looking good from the majors right now, with the exception of Best Buy -- which took a hit from online sellers like Amazon -- and Yahoo, which is being horridly run, Enderle said.
"HP, IBM, Oracle outside of hardware, and Microsoft Relevant Products/Services have all been strong coming into the end of the year, suggesting big business is buying again and the pent-up demand from lots of years of not replacing aging hardware should make for a strong 2011 if we don't have another financial crisis," Enderle said. "This last is a bit of a risk because the U.S. government isn't cooperating with itself very well at the moment and concerns of a double-dip recession are mounting as a result, which doesn't bode well for next year's sales."
Meanwhile, from an educational perspective, Professor Jonathan Askin at the Brooklyn Law School said he's already seeing early rumblings of a tech recovery, as angel and venture-capital money begins to flow back into the tech startup community.
"We see more and more startups being eyed as acquisition targets," Askin said. "Perhaps the only silver lining in our current unemployment situation is that many innovators and would-be entrepreneurs have seized the moment to work on their own ventures in the absence of having to report to work."
Source: NewsFactor Network
http://www.newsfactor.com
Friday, December 24, 2010
No easy way for investors to bet on U.S. housing recovery
As enthusiasm for a U.S. recovery builds and market watchers predict double-digit equity gains for 2011, the U.S. housing market plods along the bottom, resolutely failing to produce any compelling evidence of a rebound.
It’s a positively fascinating situation, provided you aren’t an American homeowner. And it would seem to give Canadian vulture investors an opportunity, as there are a dozen publicly traded U.S. home builders who were crushed by the bust.
The problem with this investment theory: It’s difficult to put in place, and likely unwise to do so.
One issue is valuation. The beaten-down home builder stocks have already been speculative fodder: Some doubled and tripled in 2009, with others jumping 50 per cent or more. Nearly all built on those gains in 2010. The result: The average gain for a home building stock from the end of 2008 to today is roughly 67 per cent.
Another problem, which should go without saying to the sophisticated investor: The stocks in this sector don’t move uniformly, thanks to the usual suspects of operational performance and balance sheet health, as well as the choices each company has made as to where to operate. Certain companies have been far more exposed to the overblown and overbuilt markets of Florida and the American Southwest.
This year’s returns in the sector range from a 27-per-cent drop at PulteGroup (PHM-N7.38----%) – where losses are widening, not narrowing – to a 44-per-cent gain at Lennar Corp. (LEN-N18.17----%) which returned to profitability this year.
Rather than try to assess the prospects for multiple U.S. metro real estate markets, a Canadian investor might just try to buy in to U.S. home building by choosing one of several exchange-traded funds. Herein lies the least-known of the problems: Home builder ETFs don’t actually provide enough exposure to U.S. home builders.
Let’s take three major ones as examples.
The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund (ITB-N13.21----%) puts just two-thirds of its money into what it calls “home construction,” with the rest spread among building materials, home improvement retailers and sellers of furnishings. Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. Inc. are among its top 11 holdings.
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB-N17.46----%) has less than one-third of its money in home builders; building products companies make up nearly as much of the portfolio. Only half of the top 10 holdings are home builders.
And the PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construction Portfolio (PKB-N12.96----%) fund, often lumped in with home builder ETFs, owns just two home builder stocks, making up 10 per cent of the portfolio. Industrials make up more than 60 per cent of the fund.
This issue – there are plenty of non-home-builder stocks driving performance at these ETFs – has actually benefited the funds’ owners this year. In the fourth quarter, the iShares fund is up around 9 per cent, with the SPDR above 11 per cent and the PowerShares topping 14 per cent. The average home builder gain in the quarter is about 8 per cent.
The PowerShares fund was helped in the quarter by double-digit gains from Home Depot and Lowe’s, as well as a 30-per-cent gain from Fluor Corp., which is an industrial construction company with little involvement in residential building.
All of this means there’s no easy way for Canadians to buy in to the U.S. home building sector in anticipation of its recovery. Yet that raises a larger question: Is there even a rebound coming any time soon?
Economists Vernon Smith and Steven Gjerstad of California’s Chapman University are among those who believe U.S. housing is in for a long, hard slog. They point out the typical level of annualized new-home sales has been about 700,000 to 800,000 units, compared with the current rate of about 275,000 units. With two million houses either on bank balance sheets or predicted to be headed there, it would take five years to absorb the inventory under normal economic conditions. High unemployment and consumer debt may make the time frame eight to 10 years, instead.
That suggests an extended period where home builders have a rough time selling their products. And a period when investors in home building stocks wait, and wait, for their gains.
Source: The Globe and Mail's
http://www.theglobeandmail.com
It’s a positively fascinating situation, provided you aren’t an American homeowner. And it would seem to give Canadian vulture investors an opportunity, as there are a dozen publicly traded U.S. home builders who were crushed by the bust.
The problem with this investment theory: It’s difficult to put in place, and likely unwise to do so.
One issue is valuation. The beaten-down home builder stocks have already been speculative fodder: Some doubled and tripled in 2009, with others jumping 50 per cent or more. Nearly all built on those gains in 2010. The result: The average gain for a home building stock from the end of 2008 to today is roughly 67 per cent.
Another problem, which should go without saying to the sophisticated investor: The stocks in this sector don’t move uniformly, thanks to the usual suspects of operational performance and balance sheet health, as well as the choices each company has made as to where to operate. Certain companies have been far more exposed to the overblown and overbuilt markets of Florida and the American Southwest.
This year’s returns in the sector range from a 27-per-cent drop at PulteGroup (PHM-N7.38----%) – where losses are widening, not narrowing – to a 44-per-cent gain at Lennar Corp. (LEN-N18.17----%) which returned to profitability this year.
Rather than try to assess the prospects for multiple U.S. metro real estate markets, a Canadian investor might just try to buy in to U.S. home building by choosing one of several exchange-traded funds. Herein lies the least-known of the problems: Home builder ETFs don’t actually provide enough exposure to U.S. home builders.
Let’s take three major ones as examples.
The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund (ITB-N13.21----%) puts just two-thirds of its money into what it calls “home construction,” with the rest spread among building materials, home improvement retailers and sellers of furnishings. Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. Inc. are among its top 11 holdings.
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB-N17.46----%) has less than one-third of its money in home builders; building products companies make up nearly as much of the portfolio. Only half of the top 10 holdings are home builders.
And the PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construction Portfolio (PKB-N12.96----%) fund, often lumped in with home builder ETFs, owns just two home builder stocks, making up 10 per cent of the portfolio. Industrials make up more than 60 per cent of the fund.
This issue – there are plenty of non-home-builder stocks driving performance at these ETFs – has actually benefited the funds’ owners this year. In the fourth quarter, the iShares fund is up around 9 per cent, with the SPDR above 11 per cent and the PowerShares topping 14 per cent. The average home builder gain in the quarter is about 8 per cent.
The PowerShares fund was helped in the quarter by double-digit gains from Home Depot and Lowe’s, as well as a 30-per-cent gain from Fluor Corp., which is an industrial construction company with little involvement in residential building.
All of this means there’s no easy way for Canadians to buy in to the U.S. home building sector in anticipation of its recovery. Yet that raises a larger question: Is there even a rebound coming any time soon?
Economists Vernon Smith and Steven Gjerstad of California’s Chapman University are among those who believe U.S. housing is in for a long, hard slog. They point out the typical level of annualized new-home sales has been about 700,000 to 800,000 units, compared with the current rate of about 275,000 units. With two million houses either on bank balance sheets or predicted to be headed there, it would take five years to absorb the inventory under normal economic conditions. High unemployment and consumer debt may make the time frame eight to 10 years, instead.
That suggests an extended period where home builders have a rough time selling their products. And a period when investors in home building stocks wait, and wait, for their gains.
Source: The Globe and Mail's
http://www.theglobeandmail.com
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Oil breaks through $90 on economic hopes
By Laura Mandaro and Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures on Wednesday settled above $90 a barrel for the first time since October 2008, riding a growing wave of optimism about the global recovery.
“Crude oil is the most highly correlated and best proxy for the global economy,” said Richard Ross, global technical strategist for Auerbach Grayson.
After trading sideways for much of the year, oil investors are starting to look forward to rising demand in the U.S. and emerging markets, and those hopes have been bolstered by an extended run in the stock market and gains in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT 5,087, -12.30, -0.24%) , Ross said.
“When there’s velocity of commerce, that’s going to manifest itself in higher oil prices,” he added.
Crude oil for February delivery (CLG11 91.47, +0.99, +1.09%) closed up 66 cents, or 0.7%, at $90.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the first settlement above $90 since Oct. 7, 2008, according to the exchange, and the highest settlement since oil topped $93 on Oct. 3, 2008. Read MarketWatch First Take on how the oil spike bears lumps of coal.
Factoring into the day’s trade, China allowed a rise in fuel prices. Separately, China reportedly offered to buy Portuguese sovereign debt, reducing some worries about the European debt situation. U.S. home sales rose 5.8% in November, in line with expectations, but enough to give oil a bit more support over $90.
Inventories surprise
On the flip side, rising gasoline inventories offset a deeper drop in crude-oil inventories, and analysts downplayed the drop in oil stockpiles as more pegged to year-end tax moves than demand.
Oil edged off its highs of the session after the Energy Information Administration said crude-oil inventories fell 5.3 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 17, while gasoline inventories increased 2.4 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell 600,000 barrels.
Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting a drop of 2.3 million barrels in crude oil, and a more modest rise in gasoline inventories, or 900,000 barrels. Distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, were expected to fall 600,000 barrels.
The deep drop in crude-oil stockpiles over the past two weeks may have more to do with limiting taxes on sitting assets than a surge in demand, said an analyst.
“We feel the EIA data has more to do with year-end inventory management for tax reasons than a tightening of the energy markets,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors.
January gasoline futures (RBF11 2.43, +0.01, +0.50%) ended up 3 cents, or 1.1%, at $2.42 a gallon. January heating oil (HOF11 2.55, +0.02, +0.74%) rose 1 cent, or 0.5%, to $2.53 a gallon.
Natural gas for January delivery (NGF11 4.10, -0.05, -1.18%) gained 9 cents, or 2.3%, to $4.15 per million British thermal units. The government reports weekly inventories data Thursday morning.
Oil had strengthened earlier in the session after a trade group’s late Tuesday report on inventories also showed a big drop in crude-oil inventories. And ahead of the U.S. session, China allowed a hike in gasoline and diesel prices.
The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday said crude inventories fell 5.8 million barrels on the week, with gasoline supplies dropping by 2.9 million barrels.
Earlier Wednesday, rising crude prices prompted the China National Development and Reform Commission to allow refiners to increase the price of gasoline by 3.8% and the price of diesel by 4%. Read more on Chinese fuel hikes.
Also, the U.S. government boosted its third-quarter estimate of growth in gross domestic product to 2.6%, from its previous estimate of 2.5%.
Source: MarketWatch
www.marketwatch.com
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures on Wednesday settled above $90 a barrel for the first time since October 2008, riding a growing wave of optimism about the global recovery.
“Crude oil is the most highly correlated and best proxy for the global economy,” said Richard Ross, global technical strategist for Auerbach Grayson.
After trading sideways for much of the year, oil investors are starting to look forward to rising demand in the U.S. and emerging markets, and those hopes have been bolstered by an extended run in the stock market and gains in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT 5,087, -12.30, -0.24%) , Ross said.
“When there’s velocity of commerce, that’s going to manifest itself in higher oil prices,” he added.
Crude oil for February delivery (CLG11 91.47, +0.99, +1.09%) closed up 66 cents, or 0.7%, at $90.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the first settlement above $90 since Oct. 7, 2008, according to the exchange, and the highest settlement since oil topped $93 on Oct. 3, 2008. Read MarketWatch First Take on how the oil spike bears lumps of coal.
Factoring into the day’s trade, China allowed a rise in fuel prices. Separately, China reportedly offered to buy Portuguese sovereign debt, reducing some worries about the European debt situation. U.S. home sales rose 5.8% in November, in line with expectations, but enough to give oil a bit more support over $90.
Inventories surprise
On the flip side, rising gasoline inventories offset a deeper drop in crude-oil inventories, and analysts downplayed the drop in oil stockpiles as more pegged to year-end tax moves than demand.
Oil edged off its highs of the session after the Energy Information Administration said crude-oil inventories fell 5.3 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 17, while gasoline inventories increased 2.4 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell 600,000 barrels.
Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting a drop of 2.3 million barrels in crude oil, and a more modest rise in gasoline inventories, or 900,000 barrels. Distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, were expected to fall 600,000 barrels.
The deep drop in crude-oil stockpiles over the past two weeks may have more to do with limiting taxes on sitting assets than a surge in demand, said an analyst.
“We feel the EIA data has more to do with year-end inventory management for tax reasons than a tightening of the energy markets,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors.
January gasoline futures (RBF11 2.43, +0.01, +0.50%) ended up 3 cents, or 1.1%, at $2.42 a gallon. January heating oil (HOF11 2.55, +0.02, +0.74%) rose 1 cent, or 0.5%, to $2.53 a gallon.
Natural gas for January delivery (NGF11 4.10, -0.05, -1.18%) gained 9 cents, or 2.3%, to $4.15 per million British thermal units. The government reports weekly inventories data Thursday morning.
Oil had strengthened earlier in the session after a trade group’s late Tuesday report on inventories also showed a big drop in crude-oil inventories. And ahead of the U.S. session, China allowed a hike in gasoline and diesel prices.
The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday said crude inventories fell 5.8 million barrels on the week, with gasoline supplies dropping by 2.9 million barrels.
Earlier Wednesday, rising crude prices prompted the China National Development and Reform Commission to allow refiners to increase the price of gasoline by 3.8% and the price of diesel by 4%. Read more on Chinese fuel hikes.
Also, the U.S. government boosted its third-quarter estimate of growth in gross domestic product to 2.6%, from its previous estimate of 2.5%.
Source: MarketWatch
www.marketwatch.com
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
US economic growth revised up to 2.6% for third quarter
The US economy grew at an annualised pace of 2.6% in the third quarter of 2010, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 2.5%, figures have shown.
However, the rate was lower than expectations, with some analysts expecting a figure closer to 3%.
Earlier this month, the US Federal Reserve said the US recovery was still too slow to bring down the country's high level of unemployment.
Separately, figures showed home sales continuing to recover.
Sales of previously-owned homes rose by 5.6% in November compared with the previous month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million units last month, according the National Association of Realtors.
However, the increase was less than analysts had hoped for, and overall sales were down 27.9% from a year ago.
Consumer spending
The GDP data from the Commerce Department showed that the third-quarter growth rate was revised up after an increase in the pace of businesses building up inventories.
However, this increase was offset by a downward revision to consumer spending, which grew at an annual pace of 2.4% in the quarter, down from a previous estimate of 2.8%.
Consumer spending is watched closely as it accounts for about 70% of the US economy's total economic output.
"Clearly the economy continues to improve and grow but at a slow, modest pace and that is restraining employment growth and a recovery in the housing market," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management.
Figures released earlier this month showed the unemployment rate in the US rising to 9.8%, its highest rate since April.
High unemployment, along with a weak housing market, is undermining economic growth.
'Employment growth'
Last month, the Fed said it would pump $600bn (£390bn) into the economy.
The policy, dubbed QE2 because it is the second round of quantitative easing, is designed to boost the economy's fragile recovery.
The government has also done its part to stimulate growth, by extending tax cuts enacted by President George W Bush that were set to expire this year.
However, some analysts argue that there may be some reason for cheer in the current quarter.
"More recent data suggests we're seeing reasonably healthy retail sales growth, pretty healthy investment spending [and] some growth in employment," said Zach Pandl at Normura Securities in New York.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
However, the rate was lower than expectations, with some analysts expecting a figure closer to 3%.
Earlier this month, the US Federal Reserve said the US recovery was still too slow to bring down the country's high level of unemployment.
Separately, figures showed home sales continuing to recover.
Sales of previously-owned homes rose by 5.6% in November compared with the previous month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million units last month, according the National Association of Realtors.
However, the increase was less than analysts had hoped for, and overall sales were down 27.9% from a year ago.
Consumer spending
The GDP data from the Commerce Department showed that the third-quarter growth rate was revised up after an increase in the pace of businesses building up inventories.
However, this increase was offset by a downward revision to consumer spending, which grew at an annual pace of 2.4% in the quarter, down from a previous estimate of 2.8%.
Consumer spending is watched closely as it accounts for about 70% of the US economy's total economic output.
"Clearly the economy continues to improve and grow but at a slow, modest pace and that is restraining employment growth and a recovery in the housing market," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management.
Figures released earlier this month showed the unemployment rate in the US rising to 9.8%, its highest rate since April.
High unemployment, along with a weak housing market, is undermining economic growth.
'Employment growth'
Last month, the Fed said it would pump $600bn (£390bn) into the economy.
The policy, dubbed QE2 because it is the second round of quantitative easing, is designed to boost the economy's fragile recovery.
The government has also done its part to stimulate growth, by extending tax cuts enacted by President George W Bush that were set to expire this year.
However, some analysts argue that there may be some reason for cheer in the current quarter.
"More recent data suggests we're seeing reasonably healthy retail sales growth, pretty healthy investment spending [and] some growth in employment," said Zach Pandl at Normura Securities in New York.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Japan struggles to put economy on recovery track
TOKYO : As Japan continues to struggle to put the economy firmly back on the recovery track, it is fast being overtaken by China as the world's second largest economy.
But Japanese leaders are hopeful that growth in 2011 will pick up pace, helping the economy to avert a double dip recession.
It has been a year of the good and the bad in what is arguably Asia's largest economies.
The hot summer in Japan has contributed to brisk buying of air conditioners, cold drinks and ice cream - anything to keep cool.
And shoppers rushed to purchase green cars as well as flat screen TVs and other green electronics before government incentives were reduced or cut.
However, exporters were hurt by weak overseas demand due to the strengthening Japanese yen, which hit 15-year highs.
In September, for the first time in more than six years, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the government intervened in the financial market, pouring in 2 trillion yen. And in October, the Bank of Japan slashed its key interest rates to near zero to stimulate the economy.
The central bank also began to purchase assets worth 5 trillion yen (US$56 billion) from lowly-rated companies.
And in the new year, it is expected to take further monetary easing measures.
Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities, said: "We expect BOJ will increase amount of asset purchase from the current 5 trillion yen to 10 trillion yen, at maximum, at the beginning of next year because of pressure from the government.
"Government is likely to put more pressure on the BOJ to take further action to stabilise the currency market."
Meanwhile, the government is itself under pressure to revive the job market - seen as one of the toughest ever for new graduates.
There have been no signs of companies increasing jobs, although the numbers show that wages have increased. Some economists viewed this as one of the reasons Japan will avert a double dip recession.
But they also noted that deflation - one of the big headaches for the economy - may linger for a while.
Mr Kiuchi said: "We expect negative growth of CPI, decline of CPI will continue until the end of year 2011. We expect slight increase of prices in year 2012. But the timing we can declare end of deflation could be year 2013 or 2014. Anyway, it's difficult to overcome deflation in the near future."
Economists are optimistic that the global economy will start to pick up again from April - and that may help Japan as demand for its exports increases.
By Michiyo Ishida
Source: www.channelnewsasia.com
But Japanese leaders are hopeful that growth in 2011 will pick up pace, helping the economy to avert a double dip recession.
It has been a year of the good and the bad in what is arguably Asia's largest economies.
The hot summer in Japan has contributed to brisk buying of air conditioners, cold drinks and ice cream - anything to keep cool.
And shoppers rushed to purchase green cars as well as flat screen TVs and other green electronics before government incentives were reduced or cut.
However, exporters were hurt by weak overseas demand due to the strengthening Japanese yen, which hit 15-year highs.
In September, for the first time in more than six years, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the government intervened in the financial market, pouring in 2 trillion yen. And in October, the Bank of Japan slashed its key interest rates to near zero to stimulate the economy.
The central bank also began to purchase assets worth 5 trillion yen (US$56 billion) from lowly-rated companies.
And in the new year, it is expected to take further monetary easing measures.
Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities, said: "We expect BOJ will increase amount of asset purchase from the current 5 trillion yen to 10 trillion yen, at maximum, at the beginning of next year because of pressure from the government.
"Government is likely to put more pressure on the BOJ to take further action to stabilise the currency market."
Meanwhile, the government is itself under pressure to revive the job market - seen as one of the toughest ever for new graduates.
There have been no signs of companies increasing jobs, although the numbers show that wages have increased. Some economists viewed this as one of the reasons Japan will avert a double dip recession.
But they also noted that deflation - one of the big headaches for the economy - may linger for a while.
Mr Kiuchi said: "We expect negative growth of CPI, decline of CPI will continue until the end of year 2011. We expect slight increase of prices in year 2012. But the timing we can declare end of deflation could be year 2013 or 2014. Anyway, it's difficult to overcome deflation in the near future."
Economists are optimistic that the global economy will start to pick up again from April - and that may help Japan as demand for its exports increases.
By Michiyo Ishida
Source: www.channelnewsasia.com
Monday, December 20, 2010
Economic recovery will slow down in 2011
The economic recovery that started in 2010 will slow down to some extent in 2011 said Piet Moerland, Chairman of Rabobank's Executive Board, presenting the economic Outlook 2011.
The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 13/4 per cent in 2010. This is set to shift down to an average 11/2 per cent in 2011 and the following years. There are several reasons why economic growth is slowing down. First, the global recovery is losing momentum. This has an immediate impact on the Netherlands in light of its open economy. In addition, the Dutch government is set to cut spending substantially in the years ahead, and uncertainties affecting consumer confidence and consequently also consumer spending will persist in 2011.
Dangerous global economic imbalances In terms of the global economy there is a deeper underlying problem, however. Rabobank's Outlook 2011 shows that major global and European imbalances are continuing after more than three years of financial crisis. The U.S. current account deficit remains huge and is once again widening, while China is artificially keeping the yuan exchange rate low. The main central banks are in the meantime maintaining extremely low key interest rates. Cranking up the money printing presses is also no longer expected to produce meaningful effects. Ultimately, each country is responsible for solving these economic imbalances, Rabobank's economists maintain.
Essentially, countries with savings deficits should reduce them and, conversely, countries with savings surpluses should up consumer spending. This global rebalancing could cause both unemployment and government debt in the developed economies to fall to acceptable levels, while at the same time reducing the risk of deflation. What's more, countries with an initial savings surplus will benefit from more sustainable growth that is also less sensitive to external shocks. Doing nothing and hoping for a return to the old familiar paths of growth is unrealistic. As far as that goes, the credit crisis has made it painfully clear where the global and European bottlenecks are located. Forceful measures need to be introduced to divert this from once again turning into a crisis. This necessity has once again been underscored by the recent flare-up of the European debt crisis, the Rabobank economists comment. They characterise the sluggish continuation of the past year's fledgling recovery as extremely disappointing.
In 2010, the economy clambered out of a deep recession, the deepest since the 1930s. But as 2010 draws to a close, the recovery is far from robust and the prospect of global prosperity is still very remote. Closer to home, the question is whether any improvement is in the offing for the Netherlands in the medium term. Average growth is expected to be lower in the years ahead than might be possible and much more moderate than the country was accustomed to in the years before the crisis. This is not likely to change much in the years ahead. The working population is contracting as a result of the ageing of the population, leading to tightness in the labour market in the future and curtailing potential growth. IN2030: Four scenarios for businesses The theme publication IN2030: Four scenarios for businesses was published at the same time as the macro-economic Outlook 2011.
The Rabobank economists based this scenario study on two key variables: conflict versus harmony and evolution versus revolution. The combination of these two variables has led to four scenarios, each of which depicts a possible world in 2030. The issues addressed include the following: What will the major power blocs be in twenty years' time? Will the European Union still exist? Will the euro be a global currency or just a faint memory? Will there be peaceful coexistence or a new Cold War? Will food supplies be adequate to feed the growing global population? Will there be sufficient alternatives for the finite supply of fossil fuels? And what about the structure of the Dutch economy? Will the services sector continue to surge in the Netherlands at the expense of other industries? This theme publication provides a taste of the book IN2030: Four visions of 2030, which is due to be published in 2011.
Source: www.allbusiness.com
The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 13/4 per cent in 2010. This is set to shift down to an average 11/2 per cent in 2011 and the following years. There are several reasons why economic growth is slowing down. First, the global recovery is losing momentum. This has an immediate impact on the Netherlands in light of its open economy. In addition, the Dutch government is set to cut spending substantially in the years ahead, and uncertainties affecting consumer confidence and consequently also consumer spending will persist in 2011.
Dangerous global economic imbalances In terms of the global economy there is a deeper underlying problem, however. Rabobank's Outlook 2011 shows that major global and European imbalances are continuing after more than three years of financial crisis. The U.S. current account deficit remains huge and is once again widening, while China is artificially keeping the yuan exchange rate low. The main central banks are in the meantime maintaining extremely low key interest rates. Cranking up the money printing presses is also no longer expected to produce meaningful effects. Ultimately, each country is responsible for solving these economic imbalances, Rabobank's economists maintain.
Essentially, countries with savings deficits should reduce them and, conversely, countries with savings surpluses should up consumer spending. This global rebalancing could cause both unemployment and government debt in the developed economies to fall to acceptable levels, while at the same time reducing the risk of deflation. What's more, countries with an initial savings surplus will benefit from more sustainable growth that is also less sensitive to external shocks. Doing nothing and hoping for a return to the old familiar paths of growth is unrealistic. As far as that goes, the credit crisis has made it painfully clear where the global and European bottlenecks are located. Forceful measures need to be introduced to divert this from once again turning into a crisis. This necessity has once again been underscored by the recent flare-up of the European debt crisis, the Rabobank economists comment. They characterise the sluggish continuation of the past year's fledgling recovery as extremely disappointing.
In 2010, the economy clambered out of a deep recession, the deepest since the 1930s. But as 2010 draws to a close, the recovery is far from robust and the prospect of global prosperity is still very remote. Closer to home, the question is whether any improvement is in the offing for the Netherlands in the medium term. Average growth is expected to be lower in the years ahead than might be possible and much more moderate than the country was accustomed to in the years before the crisis. This is not likely to change much in the years ahead. The working population is contracting as a result of the ageing of the population, leading to tightness in the labour market in the future and curtailing potential growth. IN2030: Four scenarios for businesses The theme publication IN2030: Four scenarios for businesses was published at the same time as the macro-economic Outlook 2011.
The Rabobank economists based this scenario study on two key variables: conflict versus harmony and evolution versus revolution. The combination of these two variables has led to four scenarios, each of which depicts a possible world in 2030. The issues addressed include the following: What will the major power blocs be in twenty years' time? Will the European Union still exist? Will the euro be a global currency or just a faint memory? Will there be peaceful coexistence or a new Cold War? Will food supplies be adequate to feed the growing global population? Will there be sufficient alternatives for the finite supply of fossil fuels? And what about the structure of the Dutch economy? Will the services sector continue to surge in the Netherlands at the expense of other industries? This theme publication provides a taste of the book IN2030: Four visions of 2030, which is due to be published in 2011.
Source: www.allbusiness.com
Thursday, December 16, 2010
UK unemployment total increases to 2.5m
Unemployment in the UK increased by 35,000 in the three months to October to 2.5 million, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.
It is the first time that the jobless measure has risen for six months.
The surprise increase was driven by public sector job losses, and pushed the unemployment rate up to 7.9%.
However, the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance in November fell fractionally, by 1,200 to 1.46 million, the ONS said.
At Prime Minister's Questions in parliament, Labour leader Ed Miliband claimed that in light of the latest jobs data, the government's claim that the UK economy was out of the danger zone "rings hollow".
In recent meetings, the Bank's monetary policy committee has been split three ways, with one member voting in favour of gradual interest rate rises to head off inflation, while another has voted to increase the Bank's purchases of government bonds in order to boost the recovery.
The unemployment figures do not bode well for 2011, according to Dr John Philpott, chief economic adviser at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).
He found it especially disappointing that the positive momentum built up over the summer appears to have run out of steam before the full impact of government austerity has been felt.
While noting another slight fall in the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance and a tiny increase in job vacancies, he said "the remainder of the ONS statistical release reads as if it was scripted by the Grinch who stole Christmas".
Part-timers
Pay - excluding bonuses - was up 2.2% on a year earlier, some way below the inflation rate, meaning that the purchasing power of wages continued to fall on average.
Another source of concern for many analysts is the growing inability of workers to find full-time jobs:
* the number of people employed full-time fell 58,000, offset by a 26,000 increase in part-time workers
* a record 1.16 million workers said they were working part-time because they could not find enough work
* the number of temporary workers who could not find permanent jobs also hit a new high of 592,000
* there was also a 22,000 increase in the number of people of employment age not seeking work - meaning they are not counted as unemployed - mainly due to an increase in early retirement.
"Until full-time jobs start to increase again the labour market will not be able to absorb large-scale job losses in the public sector," said Ian Brinkley, associate director of the Work Foundation. "Unemployment in 2011 must then inevitably rise."
Gender divide
David Cameron pointed to the fall in unemployment benefit claimants and a rise in job vacancies, and claimed that the coalition was about to launch the "biggest back-to-work programme for 70 years".
Public vs private
The rise in the number of jobless was almost entirely driven by the public sector, where employment fell 33,000, according to the ONS's latest monthly labour market report.
However, the private sector failed to take up the additional slack, with employment remaining unchanged.
The government is relying on private sector job creation to offset an estimated 330,000 public sector redundancies over the next four years due to government austerity measures.
But David Birne, insolvency practitioner at accountants HW Fisher, describes this view as being out of touch with what is happening on the ground.
"For the UK's businesses and their employees, 2011 is shaping up to be harsher than any of the past three years," said Mr Birne.
"This time next year we expect unemployment to be considerably higher than it is at present, as many more of Britain's companies go to the wall. We deal with companies of every size and from every sector day in, day out and for a large chunk of them things are looking very bleak indeed."
But the government was keen to defend the need for austerity to stabilise public finances.
"It's a long road towards restoring sustainable economic strength in this country," Employment Minister Chris Grayling told the BBC.
"You only get the private sector creating jobs if they have confidence in the direction of the economy, and they have confidence that the country will be stable economically."
Disappointment
The data could also heighten the policy dilemma for the Bank of England, coming only a day after figures showed consumer price inflation had risen to 3.3%, well above the Bank's 2% target.
Across the UK, among the worst-hit areas were Yorkshire, the North East and Northern Ireland, all of which already suffer unemployment rates over 9%, and saw big drops in total employment.
The Midlands saw the biggest jump in unemployment, up by 0.5 percentage points in the West Midlands and 0.8 in the East, to 8.9% and 8.2% respectively. Unemployment in Wales rose slightly, by 4,000.
London, the East and Scotland saw their unemployment rates fall slightly, while the South West remains the UK's jobs outperformer, seeing its unemployment rate fall 0.3 percentage points to just 5.7%, the lowest in the UK.
The data suggests that women are doing worse than men. The number of female benefit claimants rose by 4,800, compared with a 6,000 drop in male claimants.
The percentage of women aged 16 to 64 in work dropped 0.2% to 65.5%, while for men the rate was unchanged at 75.8%.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
It is the first time that the jobless measure has risen for six months.
The surprise increase was driven by public sector job losses, and pushed the unemployment rate up to 7.9%.
However, the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance in November fell fractionally, by 1,200 to 1.46 million, the ONS said.
At Prime Minister's Questions in parliament, Labour leader Ed Miliband claimed that in light of the latest jobs data, the government's claim that the UK economy was out of the danger zone "rings hollow".
In recent meetings, the Bank's monetary policy committee has been split three ways, with one member voting in favour of gradual interest rate rises to head off inflation, while another has voted to increase the Bank's purchases of government bonds in order to boost the recovery.
The unemployment figures do not bode well for 2011, according to Dr John Philpott, chief economic adviser at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).
He found it especially disappointing that the positive momentum built up over the summer appears to have run out of steam before the full impact of government austerity has been felt.
While noting another slight fall in the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance and a tiny increase in job vacancies, he said "the remainder of the ONS statistical release reads as if it was scripted by the Grinch who stole Christmas".
Part-timers
Pay - excluding bonuses - was up 2.2% on a year earlier, some way below the inflation rate, meaning that the purchasing power of wages continued to fall on average.
Another source of concern for many analysts is the growing inability of workers to find full-time jobs:
* the number of people employed full-time fell 58,000, offset by a 26,000 increase in part-time workers
* a record 1.16 million workers said they were working part-time because they could not find enough work
* the number of temporary workers who could not find permanent jobs also hit a new high of 592,000
* there was also a 22,000 increase in the number of people of employment age not seeking work - meaning they are not counted as unemployed - mainly due to an increase in early retirement.
"Until full-time jobs start to increase again the labour market will not be able to absorb large-scale job losses in the public sector," said Ian Brinkley, associate director of the Work Foundation. "Unemployment in 2011 must then inevitably rise."
Gender divide
David Cameron pointed to the fall in unemployment benefit claimants and a rise in job vacancies, and claimed that the coalition was about to launch the "biggest back-to-work programme for 70 years".
Public vs private
The rise in the number of jobless was almost entirely driven by the public sector, where employment fell 33,000, according to the ONS's latest monthly labour market report.
However, the private sector failed to take up the additional slack, with employment remaining unchanged.
The government is relying on private sector job creation to offset an estimated 330,000 public sector redundancies over the next four years due to government austerity measures.
But David Birne, insolvency practitioner at accountants HW Fisher, describes this view as being out of touch with what is happening on the ground.
"For the UK's businesses and their employees, 2011 is shaping up to be harsher than any of the past three years," said Mr Birne.
"This time next year we expect unemployment to be considerably higher than it is at present, as many more of Britain's companies go to the wall. We deal with companies of every size and from every sector day in, day out and for a large chunk of them things are looking very bleak indeed."
But the government was keen to defend the need for austerity to stabilise public finances.
"It's a long road towards restoring sustainable economic strength in this country," Employment Minister Chris Grayling told the BBC.
"You only get the private sector creating jobs if they have confidence in the direction of the economy, and they have confidence that the country will be stable economically."
Disappointment
The data could also heighten the policy dilemma for the Bank of England, coming only a day after figures showed consumer price inflation had risen to 3.3%, well above the Bank's 2% target.
Across the UK, among the worst-hit areas were Yorkshire, the North East and Northern Ireland, all of which already suffer unemployment rates over 9%, and saw big drops in total employment.
The Midlands saw the biggest jump in unemployment, up by 0.5 percentage points in the West Midlands and 0.8 in the East, to 8.9% and 8.2% respectively. Unemployment in Wales rose slightly, by 4,000.
London, the East and Scotland saw their unemployment rates fall slightly, while the South West remains the UK's jobs outperformer, seeing its unemployment rate fall 0.3 percentage points to just 5.7%, the lowest in the UK.
The data suggests that women are doing worse than men. The number of female benefit claimants rose by 4,800, compared with a 6,000 drop in male claimants.
The percentage of women aged 16 to 64 in work dropped 0.2% to 65.5%, while for men the rate was unchanged at 75.8%.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
Irish economy returns to growth
The Irish Republic's economy returned to growth between July and September, expanding by 0.5% on the previous three months, official figures have shown.
The figure was slightly below analysts' expectations.
The Republic's economy shrank in the second quarter after exiting recession in the first three months of the year.
Earlier this month, the Irish parliament passed the toughest budget in the country's history, designed to slash spending and raise taxes.
'Weak demand'
The Central Statistics Office said industry had led the economy's recovery.
Agriculture was the only other sector to expand quarter-on-quarter.
"Today's figures show that the economy has stabilised and is now on an export-led growth path," said Finance Minister Brian Lenihan.
"The budget day forecast for economic growth of 1.7% in 2011, which is in line with the consensus forecast, remains on track."
Despite the return to growth, analysts were quick to point out that the domestic economy remains subdued.
"It seems very clear that consumer spending has fallen, we know government spending has fallen, [as well as] capital spending. Domestic demand is still very weak," said Dan McLaughlin at the Bank of Ireland.
The Irish government plans to make 6bn euros ($8bn; £5bn) of cuts next year as part of a four-year, 15bn-euro austerity plan designed to bring the country's massive budget deficit under control.
The mixture of spending cuts and tax rises are a condition of an 85bn euro bail-out package for the Republic agreed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
The Republic was forced to ask for assistance when international investors began to lose confidence in the country's economy because of its high debt levels.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
The figure was slightly below analysts' expectations.
The Republic's economy shrank in the second quarter after exiting recession in the first three months of the year.
Earlier this month, the Irish parliament passed the toughest budget in the country's history, designed to slash spending and raise taxes.
'Weak demand'
The Central Statistics Office said industry had led the economy's recovery.
Agriculture was the only other sector to expand quarter-on-quarter.
"Today's figures show that the economy has stabilised and is now on an export-led growth path," said Finance Minister Brian Lenihan.
"The budget day forecast for economic growth of 1.7% in 2011, which is in line with the consensus forecast, remains on track."
Despite the return to growth, analysts were quick to point out that the domestic economy remains subdued.
"It seems very clear that consumer spending has fallen, we know government spending has fallen, [as well as] capital spending. Domestic demand is still very weak," said Dan McLaughlin at the Bank of Ireland.
The Irish government plans to make 6bn euros ($8bn; £5bn) of cuts next year as part of a four-year, 15bn-euro austerity plan designed to bring the country's massive budget deficit under control.
The mixture of spending cuts and tax rises are a condition of an 85bn euro bail-out package for the Republic agreed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
The Republic was forced to ask for assistance when international investors began to lose confidence in the country's economy because of its high debt levels.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Bankers' bonuses squeezed, salaries up
Funnily enough, the banks making the biggest stink about the new European rules on bankers' remuneration, which may be announced today, are not the ones perceived to have pushed the boat out when it came to bankers' bonuses during the boom years.
In the UK, HSBC and Standard Chartered are the banks most miffed about the restrictions they'll face on paying guaranteed bonuses and limitations that will be imposed on the amount of bankers' bonuses that can be paid in cash and paid upfront.
That's because the rules, set to be agreed today by the Committee of European Bank Supervisors, will be applied by the UK's Financial Services Authority on a global basis for British banks: so they will determine how and what the likes of HSBC and Standard Chartered pay their staff in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India and so on, as well as what they pay their people in the UK.
And that puts HSBC and Standard at a tremendous disadvantage in their most important markets, or at least that's what the bosses of those banks tell me.
They say that their competitors are still handing out guaranteed bonuses to recruit and retain top wealth generators, and are still doling out great wodges of cash. Which means that HSBC and Standard Chartered are finding it increasingly difficult to retain their best people or to hire new ones.
Because Asia is so profitable for HSBC and Standard Chartered, and because it's generating most growth for them, the notion that they might one day determine to relocate their respective offices to a place where they don't feel restricted in how they run those Asian operations, well that's not a crazy notion.
Strikingly, there's less rumpus about the pay rules being kicked up by those banks with disproportionately larger UK and European businesses. To be clear, in public they'll talk the talk of how damaging the rules will be for their ability to prevent their genuine wealth creators emigrating to rivals in places like Singapore and Geneva, where there are relatively few restrictions on pay.
And that's not an invented complaint. There's already been some migration of bankers in that way (which, I know, some of you think is no bad thing).
But I have to tell you that those who run those banks acknowledge to me that around each star sit competent but not outstanding bankers, who are paid far too much relative to their genuine wealth-creating skills. So bank bosses insist they would dearly love to find a way to pay these journeymen considerably less.
However the way the banks have anticipated the new regulators' rules certainly won't be seen by many of you as giving the bankers their just deserts. To cushion the pain of the bonus straitjacket, pretty much all the banks have increased bankers' salaries, the fixed portion of their remuneration, by considerably more than almost anyone else in the economy has enjoyed.
Most of us would say that an extra pound of permanent salary is worth considerably more than a one-off pound of bonus. So if you are thinking of taking a tin of soup and a warm blanket to your banker neighbour, in a Christmas mercy visit, it may not be strictly necessary, yet.
UPDATE 17:15 The explicit point of the new rules on bonuses - confirmed by European regulators today - is not to reduce the take home pay of bankers.
It is to eliminate incentives for bankers to take dangerous risks in order to inflate their earnings.
A second aim is to discourage banks from handing out vast dollops of cash to their employees, as it is probably more sensible for this cash to be retained by the banks as capital which can absorb potential losses.
In other words the rules - which stipulate that only 40 per cent of any bonus can be paid upfront, and only half of the overall bonus can be paid in cash as opposed to shares - are designed to strengthen banks.
That said, they may have the effect of putting a ceiling on bankers' pay.
Because they may slow down the merryground of star bankers moving from bank to bank, bidding up their pay while the music plays - in that any banker who quits from now on risks losing his or her deferred bonus, which would be a big financial sacrifice.
But as I’ve mentioned, it won't be a diet of gruel for top bankers, quite yet. Because many of them have seen their salaries rise to compensate for the expected deferral and reduction of bonuses.
By Robert Peston, the BBC's business editor.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
In the UK, HSBC and Standard Chartered are the banks most miffed about the restrictions they'll face on paying guaranteed bonuses and limitations that will be imposed on the amount of bankers' bonuses that can be paid in cash and paid upfront.
That's because the rules, set to be agreed today by the Committee of European Bank Supervisors, will be applied by the UK's Financial Services Authority on a global basis for British banks: so they will determine how and what the likes of HSBC and Standard Chartered pay their staff in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India and so on, as well as what they pay their people in the UK.
And that puts HSBC and Standard at a tremendous disadvantage in their most important markets, or at least that's what the bosses of those banks tell me.
They say that their competitors are still handing out guaranteed bonuses to recruit and retain top wealth generators, and are still doling out great wodges of cash. Which means that HSBC and Standard Chartered are finding it increasingly difficult to retain their best people or to hire new ones.
Because Asia is so profitable for HSBC and Standard Chartered, and because it's generating most growth for them, the notion that they might one day determine to relocate their respective offices to a place where they don't feel restricted in how they run those Asian operations, well that's not a crazy notion.
Strikingly, there's less rumpus about the pay rules being kicked up by those banks with disproportionately larger UK and European businesses. To be clear, in public they'll talk the talk of how damaging the rules will be for their ability to prevent their genuine wealth creators emigrating to rivals in places like Singapore and Geneva, where there are relatively few restrictions on pay.
And that's not an invented complaint. There's already been some migration of bankers in that way (which, I know, some of you think is no bad thing).
But I have to tell you that those who run those banks acknowledge to me that around each star sit competent but not outstanding bankers, who are paid far too much relative to their genuine wealth-creating skills. So bank bosses insist they would dearly love to find a way to pay these journeymen considerably less.
However the way the banks have anticipated the new regulators' rules certainly won't be seen by many of you as giving the bankers their just deserts. To cushion the pain of the bonus straitjacket, pretty much all the banks have increased bankers' salaries, the fixed portion of their remuneration, by considerably more than almost anyone else in the economy has enjoyed.
Most of us would say that an extra pound of permanent salary is worth considerably more than a one-off pound of bonus. So if you are thinking of taking a tin of soup and a warm blanket to your banker neighbour, in a Christmas mercy visit, it may not be strictly necessary, yet.
UPDATE 17:15 The explicit point of the new rules on bonuses - confirmed by European regulators today - is not to reduce the take home pay of bankers.
It is to eliminate incentives for bankers to take dangerous risks in order to inflate their earnings.
A second aim is to discourage banks from handing out vast dollops of cash to their employees, as it is probably more sensible for this cash to be retained by the banks as capital which can absorb potential losses.
In other words the rules - which stipulate that only 40 per cent of any bonus can be paid upfront, and only half of the overall bonus can be paid in cash as opposed to shares - are designed to strengthen banks.
That said, they may have the effect of putting a ceiling on bankers' pay.
Because they may slow down the merryground of star bankers moving from bank to bank, bidding up their pay while the music plays - in that any banker who quits from now on risks losing his or her deferred bonus, which would be a big financial sacrifice.
But as I’ve mentioned, it won't be a diet of gruel for top bankers, quite yet. Because many of them have seen their salaries rise to compensate for the expected deferral and reduction of bonuses.
By Robert Peston, the BBC's business editor.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
Friday, December 10, 2010
Statement by IMF on Ireland
Press Release No. 10/482
December 10, 2010
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokesperson issued the following statement today on Ireland:
“The Government of Ireland decided yesterday to table a motion on the EU-IMF Financial Assistance Program for Ireland in the Irish Parliament (Dáil). The vote on this motion is scheduled for Wednesday, December 15, 2010.
“The authorities have informed us that while parliamentary approval of the EU-IMF support package is not legally required, the Irish Government has put the motion before parliament to strengthen political support for the agreement. In deference to Ireland’s parliamentary process, the IMF has decided to postpone consideration by its Board of the proposed loan under the Extended Fund Facility until after the debate. Assuming parliamentary support for the package, the Managing Director could recommend approval by the IMF Executive Board of the proposed €22.5 billion IMF loan as early as December 16.
“We welcome the first implementation measures of the 2011 budget – stipulating the fiscal consolidation path and important reform measures involved in the program – have recently been passed by the Irish Parliament, confirming Ireland's strong commitment to the program and the policies involved.”
Source: www.imf.org
December 10, 2010
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokesperson issued the following statement today on Ireland:
“The Government of Ireland decided yesterday to table a motion on the EU-IMF Financial Assistance Program for Ireland in the Irish Parliament (Dáil). The vote on this motion is scheduled for Wednesday, December 15, 2010.
“The authorities have informed us that while parliamentary approval of the EU-IMF support package is not legally required, the Irish Government has put the motion before parliament to strengthen political support for the agreement. In deference to Ireland’s parliamentary process, the IMF has decided to postpone consideration by its Board of the proposed loan under the Extended Fund Facility until after the debate. Assuming parliamentary support for the package, the Managing Director could recommend approval by the IMF Executive Board of the proposed €22.5 billion IMF loan as early as December 16.
“We welcome the first implementation measures of the 2011 budget – stipulating the fiscal consolidation path and important reform measures involved in the program – have recently been passed by the Irish Parliament, confirming Ireland's strong commitment to the program and the policies involved.”
Source: www.imf.org
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Statement by IMF Mission to Russia
Press Release No. 10/480
December 9, 2010
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission headed by Mr. Juha Kähkönen visited Moscow during December 2–9. The team met with Deputy Prime Minister Kudrin, Bank of Russia Governor Ignatiev, other senior officials, and representatives of the banking community, academics, and think tanks. The discussions focused on Russia’s economic policy priorities as the authorities exit from the extraordinary measures they put in place in response to the international economic crisis. At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Kähkönen made the following statement today in Moscow:
“Fundamental structural reforms and stronger macroeconomic policies are needed to boost growth in the medium term. Russia’s recovery has resumed following a slowdown in the summer, but is likely to remain subdued against the backdrop of an uneven global recovery and heightened macro-financial risks. Growth is projected at 3.7 percent in 2010 and 4.3 percent in 2011.
“A more ambitious, growth-friendly, and credible government budget deficit reduction than currently planned is needed. The deficit reduction envisaged for 2011 is a step in the right direction, but consolidation should be stepped up in the following years to reach the government’s long-term target for the federal deficit excluding oil revenue (the non-oil balance) of 4.7 percent of GDP by 2015. The more ambitious adjustment should be underpinned by a stronger and more credible fiscal framework. Specifically, the framework should avoid excessive use of supplementary budgets, and anchor budget policy on the non-oil balance to reduce expenditure volatility in response to oil price fluctuations.
“Monetary policy should focus squarely on reducing inflation. While the sharp increase in inflation in recent months has been driven largely by a drought-related spike in food prices, nonfood prices have also been increasing steadily since July. Inflation may be as high as 8½ percent during 2010 and is likely to remain elevated on unchanged policies. Accordingly, an increase in policy interest rates would seem warranted to prevent the second-round effects of food-price increases from taking hold. The increased exchange-rate flexibility is welcome, as it reduces the scope for conflict between the exchange rate and inflation and deters speculative capital flows. Indeed, a flexible exchange rate should be the first line of defense against volatile capital flows.
“While the banking system has stabilized, considerable risks remain and bolstering the supervisory framework is vital. The proposed strengthening of capital adequacy requirements and the government’s strategy for the banking sector, which envisages enhancing the Bank of Russia’s legal supervisory powers, and improving transparency, asset valuation, and corporate governance in banks, are welcome. Implementation of legislation on consolidated supervision and connected lending should also be a priority.”
Source:www.imf.org
December 9, 2010
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission headed by Mr. Juha Kähkönen visited Moscow during December 2–9. The team met with Deputy Prime Minister Kudrin, Bank of Russia Governor Ignatiev, other senior officials, and representatives of the banking community, academics, and think tanks. The discussions focused on Russia’s economic policy priorities as the authorities exit from the extraordinary measures they put in place in response to the international economic crisis. At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Kähkönen made the following statement today in Moscow:
“Fundamental structural reforms and stronger macroeconomic policies are needed to boost growth in the medium term. Russia’s recovery has resumed following a slowdown in the summer, but is likely to remain subdued against the backdrop of an uneven global recovery and heightened macro-financial risks. Growth is projected at 3.7 percent in 2010 and 4.3 percent in 2011.
“A more ambitious, growth-friendly, and credible government budget deficit reduction than currently planned is needed. The deficit reduction envisaged for 2011 is a step in the right direction, but consolidation should be stepped up in the following years to reach the government’s long-term target for the federal deficit excluding oil revenue (the non-oil balance) of 4.7 percent of GDP by 2015. The more ambitious adjustment should be underpinned by a stronger and more credible fiscal framework. Specifically, the framework should avoid excessive use of supplementary budgets, and anchor budget policy on the non-oil balance to reduce expenditure volatility in response to oil price fluctuations.
“Monetary policy should focus squarely on reducing inflation. While the sharp increase in inflation in recent months has been driven largely by a drought-related spike in food prices, nonfood prices have also been increasing steadily since July. Inflation may be as high as 8½ percent during 2010 and is likely to remain elevated on unchanged policies. Accordingly, an increase in policy interest rates would seem warranted to prevent the second-round effects of food-price increases from taking hold. The increased exchange-rate flexibility is welcome, as it reduces the scope for conflict between the exchange rate and inflation and deters speculative capital flows. Indeed, a flexible exchange rate should be the first line of defense against volatile capital flows.
“While the banking system has stabilized, considerable risks remain and bolstering the supervisory framework is vital. The proposed strengthening of capital adequacy requirements and the government’s strategy for the banking sector, which envisages enhancing the Bank of Russia’s legal supervisory powers, and improving transparency, asset valuation, and corporate governance in banks, are welcome. Implementation of legislation on consolidated supervision and connected lending should also be a priority.”
Source:www.imf.org
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Statement by the IMF Mission to Turkmenistan
Press Release No. 10/476
December 7, 2010
A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Mrs. Veronica Bacalu visited Ashgabat during December 1−7, 2010. The mission met with the Turkmen authorities to take stock of recent economic developments and ongoing reforms, update the outlook for the next year and over the medium term, and discuss ways to enhance further cooperation between Turkmenistan and the IMF. In collaboration with the Central Bank of Turkmenistan, the team organized a presentation for government officials and commercial banks on the global and regional economic outlook.
At the conclusion of the mission, Mrs. Bacalu issued the following statement:
“The mission welcomes the continued progress in the implementation of the comprehensive reform agenda by the Turkmen authorities aimed at economic diversification and private sector development. Continued reforms in monetary, foreign exchange, financial, and fiscal areas are contributing to the robust performance of the Turkmen economy. Budget execution continues to be strong and public investment together with foreign direct investment, remain the main drivers of real GDP growth.
“A stable exchange rate, increased access to foreign exchange, and a more liberal trade regime are helping build trust in the national currency and increase the role of banks. The ongoing recapitalization of commercial banks and implementation of international financial reporting standards in the banking system are further strengthening financial sector.
“The economic outlook is favorable. As global demand recovers and hydrocarbon export volumes increase, the Turkmen economy is projected to grow steadily in 2011 and beyond. Growth will also be supported by on-going investment projects to develop the nonhydrocarbon economy, including infrastructure and social programs. In this regard, the mission welcomes the increase in budget spending on education and healthcare envisaged in the recently adopted 2011 budget, as well as measures to strengthen public finance management and enhance business environment for small and medium enterprises.
“Continuation of macroeconomic reforms will be important for further diversification and strengthening of the economy for the benefit of the Turkmen people.
“The IMF stands ready to continue the constructive dialog with the Turkmen authorities and supports their efforts to improve macroeconomic management, reform the financial sector, and expand private sector activity to achieve long-run sustainable growth.”
Source:www.imf.org
December 7, 2010
A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Mrs. Veronica Bacalu visited Ashgabat during December 1−7, 2010. The mission met with the Turkmen authorities to take stock of recent economic developments and ongoing reforms, update the outlook for the next year and over the medium term, and discuss ways to enhance further cooperation between Turkmenistan and the IMF. In collaboration with the Central Bank of Turkmenistan, the team organized a presentation for government officials and commercial banks on the global and regional economic outlook.
At the conclusion of the mission, Mrs. Bacalu issued the following statement:
“The mission welcomes the continued progress in the implementation of the comprehensive reform agenda by the Turkmen authorities aimed at economic diversification and private sector development. Continued reforms in monetary, foreign exchange, financial, and fiscal areas are contributing to the robust performance of the Turkmen economy. Budget execution continues to be strong and public investment together with foreign direct investment, remain the main drivers of real GDP growth.
“A stable exchange rate, increased access to foreign exchange, and a more liberal trade regime are helping build trust in the national currency and increase the role of banks. The ongoing recapitalization of commercial banks and implementation of international financial reporting standards in the banking system are further strengthening financial sector.
“The economic outlook is favorable. As global demand recovers and hydrocarbon export volumes increase, the Turkmen economy is projected to grow steadily in 2011 and beyond. Growth will also be supported by on-going investment projects to develop the nonhydrocarbon economy, including infrastructure and social programs. In this regard, the mission welcomes the increase in budget spending on education and healthcare envisaged in the recently adopted 2011 budget, as well as measures to strengthen public finance management and enhance business environment for small and medium enterprises.
“Continuation of macroeconomic reforms will be important for further diversification and strengthening of the economy for the benefit of the Turkmen people.
“The IMF stands ready to continue the constructive dialog with the Turkmen authorities and supports their efforts to improve macroeconomic management, reform the financial sector, and expand private sector activity to achieve long-run sustainable growth.”
Source:www.imf.org
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Irish cabinet finalising plans to cut budget deficit
The Irish government is to hold a cabinet meeting this weekend to finalise its four-year-plan to cut its budget deficit, the BBC has learnt.
The meeting will take place on Sunday, with details published by Tuesday.
Meanwhile talks between Dublin and the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are continuing.
The Republic is negotiating the terms of a bail-out worth tens of billions of pounds to shore up its public finances.
Two key areas will form the basis of the discussions, says BBC business correspondent Joe Lynam:
* The country's precarious fiscal situation which has pushed the budget deficit to 32% of gross domestic product
* How best to prop up the country's enfeebled banking sector which has been frozen out of international markets and all-but nationalised
'Non-negotiable' rate
Dublin's four-year plan is expected to set out how it will reduce the deficit to below 3% by Tuesday at the latest.
Then, and only then, are the terms of any international bailout expected to be published, says our correspondent.
However, the Irish government has insisted it will not raise the country's low corporation tax rate in return for a European Union-led bail-out.
Deputy Prime Minister Mary Coughlan said the 12.5% rate - much lower than the EU average - was "non-negotiable".
Her comments come as speculation grows that France and Germany want Dublin to raise the tax in return for aid.
Meanwhile, Allied Irish Banks (AIB) said 13bn euros ($18bn; £11bn) of deposits had been withdrawn this year, mostly from businesses and institutions - implying that the bank does not face a run by ordinary depositors.
The figure represents 15% of the 84bn euros of customer accounts that the bank reported possessing at the end of last year.
Bank woes
Although the Irish government claims to be fully-funded until the middle of next year, it has provided a blanket guarantee to the Irish banks, some of whom are now finding it impossible to borrow money in the markets.
On Thursday, the Irish government admitted for the first time that it needed outside help.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said he felt "no sense of shame" over the country's economic record, but that it now needed outside help.
Previously the government had said it did not need any financial support from the European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Republic's low corporation tax has been criticised by other EU nations, who argue that it gives the country too much of an advantage in attracting overseas investment.
They now argue that the Republic should not be allowed to solely rely on a bail-out, and that it should instead raise the tax rate to help boost government funds.
Source:
BBC.co.uk
The meeting will take place on Sunday, with details published by Tuesday.
Meanwhile talks between Dublin and the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are continuing.
The Republic is negotiating the terms of a bail-out worth tens of billions of pounds to shore up its public finances.
Two key areas will form the basis of the discussions, says BBC business correspondent Joe Lynam:
* The country's precarious fiscal situation which has pushed the budget deficit to 32% of gross domestic product
* How best to prop up the country's enfeebled banking sector which has been frozen out of international markets and all-but nationalised
'Non-negotiable' rate
Dublin's four-year plan is expected to set out how it will reduce the deficit to below 3% by Tuesday at the latest.
Then, and only then, are the terms of any international bailout expected to be published, says our correspondent.
However, the Irish government has insisted it will not raise the country's low corporation tax rate in return for a European Union-led bail-out.
Deputy Prime Minister Mary Coughlan said the 12.5% rate - much lower than the EU average - was "non-negotiable".
Her comments come as speculation grows that France and Germany want Dublin to raise the tax in return for aid.
Meanwhile, Allied Irish Banks (AIB) said 13bn euros ($18bn; £11bn) of deposits had been withdrawn this year, mostly from businesses and institutions - implying that the bank does not face a run by ordinary depositors.
The figure represents 15% of the 84bn euros of customer accounts that the bank reported possessing at the end of last year.
Bank woes
Although the Irish government claims to be fully-funded until the middle of next year, it has provided a blanket guarantee to the Irish banks, some of whom are now finding it impossible to borrow money in the markets.
On Thursday, the Irish government admitted for the first time that it needed outside help.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said he felt "no sense of shame" over the country's economic record, but that it now needed outside help.
Previously the government had said it did not need any financial support from the European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Republic's low corporation tax has been criticised by other EU nations, who argue that it gives the country too much of an advantage in attracting overseas investment.
They now argue that the Republic should not be allowed to solely rely on a bail-out, and that it should instead raise the tax rate to help boost government funds.
Source:
BBC.co.uk
Friday, November 19, 2010
Turkmenistan pledges gas for EU's Nabucco pipeline
Turkmenistan has pledged to supply natural gas for the planned Nabucco pipeline - a major project that should allow EU countries to rely less on Russian energy in future.
Turkmenistan says it will have up to 40bn cubic metres (1,412bn cu ft) of spare gas annually, "so European countries need not worry".
The pledge came from Turkmen Deputy PM Baymyrad Hojamuhamedov on Friday.
Uncertainty about Nabucco's gas supply has been delaying the project.
The 3,300km (2,046-mile) pipeline is expected to pump up to 31bn cubic metres of gas annually from the Caspian region and Middle East across Turkey and into Europe.
In July 2009 Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria signed an agreement to build the long-planned pipeline.
Turkmenistan's announcement came at an international energy conference in the ex-Soviet republic's capital, Ashgabat.
New export markets
Mr Hojamuhamedov said Turkmenistan had support from its Caspian neighbours for building a pipeline under the Caspian Sea, to connect up to the Nabucco pipeline.
He said delivering gas to Europe was part of Turkmenistan's plan to diversify its export markets. It already sells gas to Iran, China and Russia.
Nabucco is expected to cost about 7.9bn euros (£6.7bn) and is projected to come on stream by the end of 2014, Reuters news agency reports.
Russia is forging ahead with South Stream, a pipeline that will run from southern Russia under the Black Sea to Bulgaria. It is seen as a major rival to Nabucco.
The EU relies on Russia for a quarter of its total gas supplies. Seven countries in the 27-nation bloc are almost totally dependent on Russian gas.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
Turkmenistan says it will have up to 40bn cubic metres (1,412bn cu ft) of spare gas annually, "so European countries need not worry".
The pledge came from Turkmen Deputy PM Baymyrad Hojamuhamedov on Friday.
Uncertainty about Nabucco's gas supply has been delaying the project.
The 3,300km (2,046-mile) pipeline is expected to pump up to 31bn cubic metres of gas annually from the Caspian region and Middle East across Turkey and into Europe.
In July 2009 Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria signed an agreement to build the long-planned pipeline.
Turkmenistan's announcement came at an international energy conference in the ex-Soviet republic's capital, Ashgabat.
New export markets
Mr Hojamuhamedov said Turkmenistan had support from its Caspian neighbours for building a pipeline under the Caspian Sea, to connect up to the Nabucco pipeline.
He said delivering gas to Europe was part of Turkmenistan's plan to diversify its export markets. It already sells gas to Iran, China and Russia.
Nabucco is expected to cost about 7.9bn euros (£6.7bn) and is projected to come on stream by the end of 2014, Reuters news agency reports.
Russia is forging ahead with South Stream, a pipeline that will run from southern Russia under the Black Sea to Bulgaria. It is seen as a major rival to Nabucco.
The EU relies on Russia for a quarter of its total gas supplies. Seven countries in the 27-nation bloc are almost totally dependent on Russian gas.
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Irish crisis: What's it all about?
Dublin, Ireland (CNN) -- Ireland and the European Union are engaged in a strange and increasingly public tug of war. Dublin insists that it doesn't need money from abroad to stay afloat despite a crisis in its banking sector, while the European Union is already discussing a possible bail out.
What's the problem?
Ireland needs funds to shore up its balance sheets. The government pumped billions of euros into Irish banks to keep them afloat, effectively nationalizing most of them. The European Central Bank is lending money to Irish banks because other banks won't. And lately people and companies have been pulling funds out of the banks. This can't go on.
What would international loans or loan guarantees mean for the average Irish citizen?
Analysts say a bail out is not likely to affect Irish citizens directly but would have beneficial effects nonetheless. "All it's going to do is keep the banks going," said Peter Morici of the State University of New York at Albany. "It's not going to change the objective conditions for the average Irish people." But Allan Timmermann, who holds an endowed chair of finance at the University of California San Diego, said a bail out would make life easier for ordinary folks because the aid might lessen the severity of service cuts the government will need to make. "If you imagine that there's no bail out, the measures that Ireland would have to take in terms of cutbacks would have to be much more drastic."
What would it mean for people across Europe?
It means their tax dollars going to pay for yet another bank bail out plan, after the European Union bailed out Greece to the tune of 110 billion euros (currently $150 billion) in May.
But it also means the markets might calm down, taking pressure off Spain and Portugal, which are also facing budget problems. Bringing the yield on Portuguese and Spanish government bonds back to normal levels would mean they pay less on interest and more, hopefully, toward reducing their own deficits.
Would it mean anything for Americans?
The stock market might regain what it has lost in the past two weeks over "fears of European recovery." It could also mean the dollar starts to fall against the euro, which might boost American exports to Europe, since American good would be cheaper for euro-spenders to buy.
Who would pay for an Irish bail out?
After Greece took European and International Monetary Fund loans, European Union countries pledged nearly 1 trillion dollars for any country that can't pay its bills by raising funds through normal debt markets. Ireland does not have that problem, but it's clear the EU would allow Ireland to pump loans into its banks (given the government controls them now anyway). If and when Ireland asks for help, EU countries pay according to their size: Germany the most and Malta the least.
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
What's the problem?
Ireland needs funds to shore up its balance sheets. The government pumped billions of euros into Irish banks to keep them afloat, effectively nationalizing most of them. The European Central Bank is lending money to Irish banks because other banks won't. And lately people and companies have been pulling funds out of the banks. This can't go on.
What would international loans or loan guarantees mean for the average Irish citizen?
Analysts say a bail out is not likely to affect Irish citizens directly but would have beneficial effects nonetheless. "All it's going to do is keep the banks going," said Peter Morici of the State University of New York at Albany. "It's not going to change the objective conditions for the average Irish people." But Allan Timmermann, who holds an endowed chair of finance at the University of California San Diego, said a bail out would make life easier for ordinary folks because the aid might lessen the severity of service cuts the government will need to make. "If you imagine that there's no bail out, the measures that Ireland would have to take in terms of cutbacks would have to be much more drastic."
What would it mean for people across Europe?
It means their tax dollars going to pay for yet another bank bail out plan, after the European Union bailed out Greece to the tune of 110 billion euros (currently $150 billion) in May.
But it also means the markets might calm down, taking pressure off Spain and Portugal, which are also facing budget problems. Bringing the yield on Portuguese and Spanish government bonds back to normal levels would mean they pay less on interest and more, hopefully, toward reducing their own deficits.
Would it mean anything for Americans?
The stock market might regain what it has lost in the past two weeks over "fears of European recovery." It could also mean the dollar starts to fall against the euro, which might boost American exports to Europe, since American good would be cheaper for euro-spenders to buy.
Who would pay for an Irish bail out?
After Greece took European and International Monetary Fund loans, European Union countries pledged nearly 1 trillion dollars for any country that can't pay its bills by raising funds through normal debt markets. Ireland does not have that problem, but it's clear the EU would allow Ireland to pump loans into its banks (given the government controls them now anyway). If and when Ireland asks for help, EU countries pay according to their size: Germany the most and Malta the least.
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
EU finance ministers discuss Irish debt crisis
(CNN) -- Ireland's economic problems were expected to dominate Wednesday's regular meeting of European Union economic and finance ministers in Brussels, Belgium.
Irish leaders have said their treasury is funded through the first half of 2011, but there are still fears its financial sector could collapse under the weight of its massive debt.
"We are now engaged in short-term and effective consultations with the Irish government, together with the European Central Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) in order to assess the real situation of the banking sector and the needs of reorganization and potential consequences of that," said Olli Rehn, the EU economic and monetary commissioner, as he arrived for Wednesday's meeting.
That Ireland shares the euro with 15 other European nations has raised concerns its financial problems could affect the common currency and the wider EU.
External support to bail out Ireland is one option being considered, but the country must make a request for that to happen -- and Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said so far, he hasn't done so.
The European Union and IMF were forced to bail out Greece in May, coming up with a three-year, 110-billion-euro (currently $150 billion) loan to save Greece from defaulting on debt.
Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders said Wednesday the ministers were "ready to do something which is necessary" to help Ireland.
"We start the negotiation with Ireland, with the IMF, with the European Commission, with the ECB and, if necessary, we are ready to act," he said as he entered the meeting.
At the request of Irish authorities, a meeting was scheduled for Thursday with the IMF, ECB, and European Commission to determine the best way for them to provide support.
Britain is one of the most exposed European countries to the Irish financial problems, with "very strong interconnection in the banking sector and financial system between the two countries," Rehn said Wednesday.
Britain's finance minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, said Wednesday the the country will do what is in its own national interests as regards Ireland.
"Ireland is our closest neighbor, and it's in Britain's national interest that the Irish economy is successful and we have a stable banking system," he said in a statement. "So Britain stands ready to support Ireland in the steps that it needs to take to bring about that stability."
Cowen said he remains committed to reducing the country's deficit to below 3 percent of gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of a nation's economy -- by the end of 2014.
Ireland is forecast to run a deficit of 11.9 percent of its GDP in 2010, and overall, the country is grappling with a running tab of debt that will total 98.5 percent of its entire economy this year, Cowen said.
Since 2008, Ireland has enacted strict budget-cutting measures slashing about $20 billion off the country's budget. Cowen now plans to cut an additional $20 billion over the next few years.
"Our revenues and our spending are out of line to the tune of 19 billion (euros, or roughly $26 billion) and this is a gap that is presently being filled by borrowing," he said. "This cannot continue. We must continue along the road of budgetary consolidation which we first embarked upon in 2008."
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
Irish leaders have said their treasury is funded through the first half of 2011, but there are still fears its financial sector could collapse under the weight of its massive debt.
"We are now engaged in short-term and effective consultations with the Irish government, together with the European Central Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) in order to assess the real situation of the banking sector and the needs of reorganization and potential consequences of that," said Olli Rehn, the EU economic and monetary commissioner, as he arrived for Wednesday's meeting.
That Ireland shares the euro with 15 other European nations has raised concerns its financial problems could affect the common currency and the wider EU.
External support to bail out Ireland is one option being considered, but the country must make a request for that to happen -- and Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said so far, he hasn't done so.
The European Union and IMF were forced to bail out Greece in May, coming up with a three-year, 110-billion-euro (currently $150 billion) loan to save Greece from defaulting on debt.
Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders said Wednesday the ministers were "ready to do something which is necessary" to help Ireland.
"We start the negotiation with Ireland, with the IMF, with the European Commission, with the ECB and, if necessary, we are ready to act," he said as he entered the meeting.
At the request of Irish authorities, a meeting was scheduled for Thursday with the IMF, ECB, and European Commission to determine the best way for them to provide support.
Britain is one of the most exposed European countries to the Irish financial problems, with "very strong interconnection in the banking sector and financial system between the two countries," Rehn said Wednesday.
Britain's finance minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, said Wednesday the the country will do what is in its own national interests as regards Ireland.
"Ireland is our closest neighbor, and it's in Britain's national interest that the Irish economy is successful and we have a stable banking system," he said in a statement. "So Britain stands ready to support Ireland in the steps that it needs to take to bring about that stability."
Cowen said he remains committed to reducing the country's deficit to below 3 percent of gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of a nation's economy -- by the end of 2014.
Ireland is forecast to run a deficit of 11.9 percent of its GDP in 2010, and overall, the country is grappling with a running tab of debt that will total 98.5 percent of its entire economy this year, Cowen said.
Since 2008, Ireland has enacted strict budget-cutting measures slashing about $20 billion off the country's budget. Cowen now plans to cut an additional $20 billion over the next few years.
"Our revenues and our spending are out of line to the tune of 19 billion (euros, or roughly $26 billion) and this is a gap that is presently being filled by borrowing," he said. "This cannot continue. We must continue along the road of budgetary consolidation which we first embarked upon in 2008."
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Eurozone members pressed on debt plans
(FT) -- Eurozone finance ministers will press Ireland and Portugal to spell out their detailed plans to handle their debt loads amid signs that the two countries are edging towards an international bail-out.
The meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Tuesday comes amid signs of increasing fractures within the monetary union over the European Central Bank's efforts to pressure Ireland into taking aid.
Portugal's finance minister said that investors believed Lisbon was increasingly likely to be forced to turn to emergency help because of contagion in the financial markets.
"The risk is high because we are not facing only a national or country problem," said Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, referring to the chances that Lisbon will have to seek emergency support.
"It is the problems of Greece, Portugal and Ireland...This has to do with the eurozone and the stability of the eurozone and that is why contagion in this framework is more likely."
His comments sent the euro lower against the dollar, although the eurozone peripheral bond markets of Portugal, Ireland and Greece held steady. The US dollar was also supported by a sharp rise in Treasury yields that followed the release of better-than-expected retail sales data for October.
At the same time Greece's prime minister, George Papandreou, warned that Germany's insistence on investors sharing the pain in any future mechanism for a eurozone bail-out could damage some economies.
"This could break backs. This could force economies towards bankruptcy," he said on a visit to Paris. Dublin was told by the ECB on Monday that funds from the European Union's new bail-out facility could be used by its government to strengthen its banking system.
Ireland, at the centre of the renewed crisis because of its banking woes, is considered by many investors to be almost certain to need financial support, with Portugal to follow.
The comments by VÃtor Constâncio, ECB vice-president, about possible support for Ireland added to the pressure that the ECB is applying behind the scenes for swift action by Dublin.
The euro's monetary guardian fears Ireland is assuming its banks can rely indefinitely on the unlimited liquidity it is pumping into the eurozone financial system.
Countries such as Portugal and Spain, both of which have to borrow from the financial markets before Ireland, have supported the ECB's campaign.
But other countries, with stronger fiscal positions, are complaining about the ECB's tactics and could make an issue of the bank's policy at the eurozone meeting.
According to one official, some countries are expected to argue that the €440B ($598B) rescue fund should only be tapped when a country is in emergency need of funds, not just to settle the financial markets. Dublin has said it is fully funded through the spring.
In an interview, Jyrki Katainen, the Finnish finance minister, said he would propose a measure at the summit that would require countries seeking a bail-out to put up collateral before getting a loan from the European financial stability facility.
Mr Katainen said the measure would help lower borrowing costs and get around the "no bail-out" clause in the EU's treaty. But it would also make it more onerous for countries to tap the fund, a sign Finland is among those who feel the pressure on Ireland is unjustified.
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
The meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Tuesday comes amid signs of increasing fractures within the monetary union over the European Central Bank's efforts to pressure Ireland into taking aid.
Portugal's finance minister said that investors believed Lisbon was increasingly likely to be forced to turn to emergency help because of contagion in the financial markets.
"The risk is high because we are not facing only a national or country problem," said Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, referring to the chances that Lisbon will have to seek emergency support.
"It is the problems of Greece, Portugal and Ireland...This has to do with the eurozone and the stability of the eurozone and that is why contagion in this framework is more likely."
His comments sent the euro lower against the dollar, although the eurozone peripheral bond markets of Portugal, Ireland and Greece held steady. The US dollar was also supported by a sharp rise in Treasury yields that followed the release of better-than-expected retail sales data for October.
At the same time Greece's prime minister, George Papandreou, warned that Germany's insistence on investors sharing the pain in any future mechanism for a eurozone bail-out could damage some economies.
"This could break backs. This could force economies towards bankruptcy," he said on a visit to Paris. Dublin was told by the ECB on Monday that funds from the European Union's new bail-out facility could be used by its government to strengthen its banking system.
Ireland, at the centre of the renewed crisis because of its banking woes, is considered by many investors to be almost certain to need financial support, with Portugal to follow.
The comments by VÃtor Constâncio, ECB vice-president, about possible support for Ireland added to the pressure that the ECB is applying behind the scenes for swift action by Dublin.
The euro's monetary guardian fears Ireland is assuming its banks can rely indefinitely on the unlimited liquidity it is pumping into the eurozone financial system.
Countries such as Portugal and Spain, both of which have to borrow from the financial markets before Ireland, have supported the ECB's campaign.
But other countries, with stronger fiscal positions, are complaining about the ECB's tactics and could make an issue of the bank's policy at the eurozone meeting.
According to one official, some countries are expected to argue that the €440B ($598B) rescue fund should only be tapped when a country is in emergency need of funds, not just to settle the financial markets. Dublin has said it is fully funded through the spring.
In an interview, Jyrki Katainen, the Finnish finance minister, said he would propose a measure at the summit that would require countries seeking a bail-out to put up collateral before getting a loan from the European financial stability facility.
Mr Katainen said the measure would help lower borrowing costs and get around the "no bail-out" clause in the EU's treaty. But it would also make it more onerous for countries to tap the fund, a sign Finland is among those who feel the pressure on Ireland is unjustified.
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
Monday, November 15, 2010
Irish elite keen to avoid humiliation
(FT) -- In Dublin on Sunday, Irish government ministers were sticking to the line that the country is fully funded until the middle of next year and does not need to tap the European Union or the International Monetary Fund for a bail-out.
They have depicted any move to go "cap in hand" for outside assistance as a national humiliation, especially in a country that fought for its political independence from Britain 90 years ago.
"It has been a very hard-won sovereignty for this country and the government is not going to give over that sovereignty to anyone," said Batt O'Keeffe, the enterprise minister.
Having set out the choice in such stark terms, the government is now finding it difficult to adjust to mounting pressure from its European partners to make a formal request for assistance, which is required if it wants to access the European Financial Stability Facility.
One pundit has likened Dublin's stubbornness to a husband who has lost his way, but still refuses to take his wife's advice and turn on the GPS guidance system.
In this context, Patrick Honohan, the central bank governor, seemed to play down the humbling symbolism of a bail-out last week, when he said an IMF stability programme would be little different to the government's current austerity plans.
The reality is that the Irish government does have sufficient funds to pay for essential public services up to June or July. And even after that it can resort to the national pension reserve fund, a sovereign wealth fund already used to bail out Ireland's banks, if it is still unwilling or unable to re-enter the debt markets.
One key factor is the balance sheets of Ireland's banks. The concern in Frankfurt and other European financial centres is over the financial positions of the commercial banks, which, despite large-scale taxpayer support, are still heavily dependent on European Central Bank liquidity, as financial market tensions have cut off other sources of financing.
According to data released on Friday, some €130bn in loans to Irish banks were outstanding at the end of October, up from €119bn a month earlier. This means Irish banks made up almost a quarter of the total ECB liquidity in the eurozone financial system -- and that was before the recent sharp spike in Irish government yields.
The banks' problems were underlined on Friday when Bank of Ireland, by far the strongest of the Irish banks, reported that it had lost €10bn in corporate deposits in recent months.
"I will be stunned if the announcement, if it comes, doesn't include the Irish banks in some way," said an Irish economist who asked not to be named.
Ireland's short-term concern is that, if it has to take political heat domestically, there has to be some real financial benefit.
Brian Cowen, the prime minister and Brian Lenihan, his finance minister, are reluctant to sign up to any outside EFSF assistance if doing so allows the ECB to reduce the assistance it is providing to Ireland's commercial banks.
If the Irish government passes the budget on December 7 and calls a general election early in the new year, it would face almost certain defeat.
But then the current opposition would have the humiliating task of calling in outside help.
There is also increasing unrest among backbenchers, fuelling fears that the government may not have the parliamentary numbers to pass the budget.
As pressure from the big economies mount, the preoccupation now seems to be to ensure that any bail-out announcement is perceived as part of a wider effort to shore up the euro, rather than as simply an exercise to address Ireland's problems.
As Mr Lenihan said on Friday: "We have not, contrary to much speculation, applied to join any facility, or avail of any facility. But of course we're an inter-dependent part of the eurozone, and we're in constant liaison with the [ECB] and with the [European] commission."
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
They have depicted any move to go "cap in hand" for outside assistance as a national humiliation, especially in a country that fought for its political independence from Britain 90 years ago.
"It has been a very hard-won sovereignty for this country and the government is not going to give over that sovereignty to anyone," said Batt O'Keeffe, the enterprise minister.
Having set out the choice in such stark terms, the government is now finding it difficult to adjust to mounting pressure from its European partners to make a formal request for assistance, which is required if it wants to access the European Financial Stability Facility.
One pundit has likened Dublin's stubbornness to a husband who has lost his way, but still refuses to take his wife's advice and turn on the GPS guidance system.
In this context, Patrick Honohan, the central bank governor, seemed to play down the humbling symbolism of a bail-out last week, when he said an IMF stability programme would be little different to the government's current austerity plans.
The reality is that the Irish government does have sufficient funds to pay for essential public services up to June or July. And even after that it can resort to the national pension reserve fund, a sovereign wealth fund already used to bail out Ireland's banks, if it is still unwilling or unable to re-enter the debt markets.
One key factor is the balance sheets of Ireland's banks. The concern in Frankfurt and other European financial centres is over the financial positions of the commercial banks, which, despite large-scale taxpayer support, are still heavily dependent on European Central Bank liquidity, as financial market tensions have cut off other sources of financing.
According to data released on Friday, some €130bn in loans to Irish banks were outstanding at the end of October, up from €119bn a month earlier. This means Irish banks made up almost a quarter of the total ECB liquidity in the eurozone financial system -- and that was before the recent sharp spike in Irish government yields.
The banks' problems were underlined on Friday when Bank of Ireland, by far the strongest of the Irish banks, reported that it had lost €10bn in corporate deposits in recent months.
"I will be stunned if the announcement, if it comes, doesn't include the Irish banks in some way," said an Irish economist who asked not to be named.
Ireland's short-term concern is that, if it has to take political heat domestically, there has to be some real financial benefit.
Brian Cowen, the prime minister and Brian Lenihan, his finance minister, are reluctant to sign up to any outside EFSF assistance if doing so allows the ECB to reduce the assistance it is providing to Ireland's commercial banks.
If the Irish government passes the budget on December 7 and calls a general election early in the new year, it would face almost certain defeat.
But then the current opposition would have the humiliating task of calling in outside help.
There is also increasing unrest among backbenchers, fuelling fears that the government may not have the parliamentary numbers to pass the budget.
As pressure from the big economies mount, the preoccupation now seems to be to ensure that any bail-out announcement is perceived as part of a wider effort to shore up the euro, rather than as simply an exercise to address Ireland's problems.
As Mr Lenihan said on Friday: "We have not, contrary to much speculation, applied to join any facility, or avail of any facility. But of course we're an inter-dependent part of the eurozone, and we're in constant liaison with the [ECB] and with the [European] commission."
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Time to print more money?
The Federal Reserve signals that it might pump more dollars into the economy if things get worse. Is that a good idea?
Best Opinion: U.S. News, Seeking Alpha, Wall St. Journal
With the recovery faltering, the Federal Reserve is considering expanding the money supply to give the economy another boost. In newly released minutes from September's Fed meetings, policy makers appeared ready to launch a second round of so-called quantitative easing — purchasing Treasury bonds to drive down interest rates and raise expectations of inflation, encouraging consumers to buy more now. But opponents of the move say the Fed would just undermine international confidence in the dollar and the U.S. economy. Is printing money the right way to get the things moving again? (Watch a Fox Business discussion about the proposal)
Firing up the printing presses could be a big mistake: Buying all these assets — up to $1 trillion worth — would merely add to "the already ballooning deficit," says Ben Baden at U.S. News & World Report. And pushing down already low interest rates would further penalize people, especially retirees, who live off the interest on their savings. "One of the biggest problems facing the economy is a lack of confidence" — so maybe the Fed should be signaling that the threat of Armageddon is past and we're getting back to normal.
"Why more quantitative easing could be a mistake"
This could be just the stimulus we need: Quantitative easing will "provide short term stimulus," says Jim Farrish at Seeking Alpha. So it is the right move if the Federal Reserve determines that the economy is getting worse and needs another shot in the arm. There's no denying that this will weaken the dollar, possibly expanding deficits and creating inflation. But there will be time to head off those problems once the immediate crisis has passed.
"Is this a bull market or not?"
It might help — just not very much: "Investors have been euphoric" with the hope of another flood of cash, says Kathleen Madigan at The Wall Street Journal. And the move — expected at the Fed's next meeting, in November — is "better than nothing." But the first round of easing that began in 2008 has alread made loans so cheap that any business looking to expand and create jobs could have done so already. Pushing rates a tad lower won't help "as much as some hope."
"QE2 may not be lifeboat for economy or jobs"
Source:theweek.com
Best Opinion: U.S. News, Seeking Alpha, Wall St. Journal
With the recovery faltering, the Federal Reserve is considering expanding the money supply to give the economy another boost. In newly released minutes from September's Fed meetings, policy makers appeared ready to launch a second round of so-called quantitative easing — purchasing Treasury bonds to drive down interest rates and raise expectations of inflation, encouraging consumers to buy more now. But opponents of the move say the Fed would just undermine international confidence in the dollar and the U.S. economy. Is printing money the right way to get the things moving again? (Watch a Fox Business discussion about the proposal)
Firing up the printing presses could be a big mistake: Buying all these assets — up to $1 trillion worth — would merely add to "the already ballooning deficit," says Ben Baden at U.S. News & World Report. And pushing down already low interest rates would further penalize people, especially retirees, who live off the interest on their savings. "One of the biggest problems facing the economy is a lack of confidence" — so maybe the Fed should be signaling that the threat of Armageddon is past and we're getting back to normal.
"Why more quantitative easing could be a mistake"
This could be just the stimulus we need: Quantitative easing will "provide short term stimulus," says Jim Farrish at Seeking Alpha. So it is the right move if the Federal Reserve determines that the economy is getting worse and needs another shot in the arm. There's no denying that this will weaken the dollar, possibly expanding deficits and creating inflation. But there will be time to head off those problems once the immediate crisis has passed.
"Is this a bull market or not?"
It might help — just not very much: "Investors have been euphoric" with the hope of another flood of cash, says Kathleen Madigan at The Wall Street Journal. And the move — expected at the Fed's next meeting, in November — is "better than nothing." But the first round of easing that began in 2008 has alread made loans so cheap that any business looking to expand and create jobs could have done so already. Pushing rates a tad lower won't help "as much as some hope."
"QE2 may not be lifeboat for economy or jobs"
Source:theweek.com
Saturday, November 13, 2010
You say 'recession,' I say 'depression'
With hopes for a quick recovery fading, the fight over what to call the economic slump begins anew
Best Opinion: New Republic, Encore, Death by 1000 Paper Cuts
Economists warn that U.S. is facing slower economic growth ahead, raising fears that the nation may fall into another recession. But some financial experts say it makes perfect sense that business isn't bouncing back as it has after past recessions — because what we're experiencing is actually a full-blown depression, instead of a more common recession. Is this financial crisis a depression, or a recession? (Watch a CNBC discussion about whether this is a depression)
Sorry, folks. This is a depression: Unlike all the post-World War II recessions, this downturn was global in scale, says John B. Judis in The New Republic. And like the Great Depression, the current crisis was "precipitated, and deepened, by a financial crisis." Past experience shows that only massive government spending can speed the economy out of a depression — if we pull back, and treat this like a mere recession, we'll only prolong the pain.
"You say recession, I say depression"
Don't fall for the liberal word play: The U.S. economy has suffered a bad recession, says Howard Rich at Encore online. If we leave it to the free market, we'll bounce back quickly. But if Big Government advocates continue to use scare tactics to justify "costly federal interventionist policies." If they have their way, we'll turn "a recession into a depression" by overburdening the government with debt, just like we did after the crash of 1929.
"Recovery semantics"
It doesn't matter what we call it — the economy's in crisis: A recession is a downturn that's part of a normal business cycle, says Mondo Frazier at Death by 1000 Paper Cuts, while a depression is a long-term crisis that hits many countries at once. Whatever word you choose, we've got massive deficits, 10 percent unemployment, and no relief in sight. "We only have two words of advice: buckle up."
"Recovery summer's over. Now, is it a recession or depression?"
Source:theweek.com
Best Opinion: New Republic, Encore, Death by 1000 Paper Cuts
Economists warn that U.S. is facing slower economic growth ahead, raising fears that the nation may fall into another recession. But some financial experts say it makes perfect sense that business isn't bouncing back as it has after past recessions — because what we're experiencing is actually a full-blown depression, instead of a more common recession. Is this financial crisis a depression, or a recession? (Watch a CNBC discussion about whether this is a depression)
Sorry, folks. This is a depression: Unlike all the post-World War II recessions, this downturn was global in scale, says John B. Judis in The New Republic. And like the Great Depression, the current crisis was "precipitated, and deepened, by a financial crisis." Past experience shows that only massive government spending can speed the economy out of a depression — if we pull back, and treat this like a mere recession, we'll only prolong the pain.
"You say recession, I say depression"
Don't fall for the liberal word play: The U.S. economy has suffered a bad recession, says Howard Rich at Encore online. If we leave it to the free market, we'll bounce back quickly. But if Big Government advocates continue to use scare tactics to justify "costly federal interventionist policies." If they have their way, we'll turn "a recession into a depression" by overburdening the government with debt, just like we did after the crash of 1929.
"Recovery semantics"
It doesn't matter what we call it — the economy's in crisis: A recession is a downturn that's part of a normal business cycle, says Mondo Frazier at Death by 1000 Paper Cuts, while a depression is a long-term crisis that hits many countries at once. Whatever word you choose, we've got massive deficits, 10 percent unemployment, and no relief in sight. "We only have two words of advice: buckle up."
"Recovery summer's over. Now, is it a recession or depression?"
Source:theweek.com
Friday, November 12, 2010
Are we heading into a 'third depression'?
In its history, the U.S. has endured only two depressions. Misguided fears over deficit spending are pushing us into a third, argues Paul Krugman
Best Opinion: NY Times, BeliefNet, FireDogLake
The G-20 nations agreed last weekend to halve their deficits by 2013, saying fiscal austerity measures are the best path to economic growth. President Obama and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, an economist, argued that cutting spending too soon will just make things worse; Nobel laureate and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman is going one step further, warning that austerity now will turn the fragile recovery into America's third full-fledged depression. Who's right? (Watch a CNBC discussion about Krugman's claims)
Spend now, cut later: Misguided Europeans and U.S. deficit hawks have us "in the early stages of a third depression," says Paul Krugman in The New York Times. Like in the Great Depression and Long Depression of the 1870s, foolish policymakers are foolishly "preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending." It is "self-defeating" and cruel to cut spending while unemployment remains high.
"The third depression"
Cut or perish: Given our "fathomless hole of debt," it's "sheer madness to borrow even more, as Krugman advises," says Rod Dreher in BeliefNet. Instead, how about this "irresistible" advice from Krugman's "principal antagonist," Niall Ferguson: To avoid the "terrible" specter of default, "we simply have no choice but to slash spending." A note to Obama: The French Revolution was "sparked principally by massive levels of government debt."
"Krugman: Here's the next Great Depression"
Why trust the architects of this disaster? The problem with "today’s deficit hysteria," says John Chandley in FireDogLake, is that it's being spread by the same geniuses that drove us into this ditch in the first place. It doesn't take a PhD in economics to understand that "the most important steps in reducing long-run deficits start with a fully recovered economy and putting people back to work." And that's a long way off.
"Economics is hard... especially for those who got everything wrong"
Source:theweek.com
Best Opinion: NY Times, BeliefNet, FireDogLake
The G-20 nations agreed last weekend to halve their deficits by 2013, saying fiscal austerity measures are the best path to economic growth. President Obama and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, an economist, argued that cutting spending too soon will just make things worse; Nobel laureate and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman is going one step further, warning that austerity now will turn the fragile recovery into America's third full-fledged depression. Who's right? (Watch a CNBC discussion about Krugman's claims)
Spend now, cut later: Misguided Europeans and U.S. deficit hawks have us "in the early stages of a third depression," says Paul Krugman in The New York Times. Like in the Great Depression and Long Depression of the 1870s, foolish policymakers are foolishly "preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending." It is "self-defeating" and cruel to cut spending while unemployment remains high.
"The third depression"
Cut or perish: Given our "fathomless hole of debt," it's "sheer madness to borrow even more, as Krugman advises," says Rod Dreher in BeliefNet. Instead, how about this "irresistible" advice from Krugman's "principal antagonist," Niall Ferguson: To avoid the "terrible" specter of default, "we simply have no choice but to slash spending." A note to Obama: The French Revolution was "sparked principally by massive levels of government debt."
"Krugman: Here's the next Great Depression"
Why trust the architects of this disaster? The problem with "today’s deficit hysteria," says John Chandley in FireDogLake, is that it's being spread by the same geniuses that drove us into this ditch in the first place. It doesn't take a PhD in economics to understand that "the most important steps in reducing long-run deficits start with a fully recovered economy and putting people back to work." And that's a long way off.
"Economics is hard... especially for those who got everything wrong"
Source:theweek.com
Thursday, November 11, 2010
High-tech will help spur economic recovery
When the networking giant Cisco recently experienced a 23 percent jump in quarterly profit and 8 percent gain in revenue, John Chambers, the chairman and CEO, announced plans to hire as many as 3,000 workers — despite an economy struggling to recover from the worst fiscal crisis since the Great Depression.
Last week, Intel announced a $3.5 billion initiative for investment in U.S.-based technology companies, as well as a commitment, with 10 other tech firms, to increase hiring of college graduates. AT&T and Verizon project capital expenditures in 2010 of nearly $35 billion combined.
Fortunately for our nation’s economy, the high-tech playbook is a growth catalyst. After the early-1980s recession, the boom in personal computer and individual content creation — fueled by industry bellwethers like Intel, Apple, Dell, IBM and Microsoft — ushered in a new industry, thousands of jobs and the birth of the digital age.
The same was true in the mid-1990s, as the Internet revolutionized how businesses and consumers access information, perform research and engage in commercial transactions worldwide.
During the past decade, new platforms and technologies — such as virtualization, WiFi, cloud computing, mobility and social networks — have spurred new levels of efficiency, collaboration and cost savings. They created the likes of Google, MySpace, Facebook and Twitter.
A recent Democratic Leadership Council study found that investment and recovery go hand in hand. In the past two decades, job creation has closely tracked business investment in equipment, software and computers. Innovation is especially vital for small businesses, which create most new jobs.
The research firm Gartner estimates that global spending on technology products and services will rise by 4.6 percent to $3.4 trillion this year, after initially predicting 3.3 percent growth. New and emerging markets — including the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China — are expected to be responsible for more than half of all industry growth, according to IDC, a research firm.
While the potential of information and communications technology to drive a job-rich economic recovery looks almost certain, three factors will determine the extent of its success:
First, the degree to which Congress and the Obama administration — working with the private sector — outline and implement a plan for the United States to become the global leader in ICT-driven innovation.
Consider the issue for education. While our nation’s higher education system is the world’s most innovative, the latest scorecard, released by the National Center for Education Statistics, shows that the average score of U.S. eighth-graders in math and science is 520, compared with 530 in Russia, 553 in England and 561 in Japan.
We must embrace what works in the private sector, learn from our closest competitors and invest in programs that ensure our K-12 education system doesn’t fall behind.
Another priority must be our complex corporate-tax system. One-fifth of the U.S. private-sector work force (nearly 22 million in 2006) works for U.S.-based multinational companies. Yet the United States is the only large economy with both a worldwide tax system and a corporate tax rate greater than 30 percent — with enough tax loopholes to support the largest fleet of tax lawyers and accountants in the world.
To compete in the global economy, Washington needs a competitive tax structure that enables us to create jobs, promote innovation and raise living standards.
Second, a shift in mind-set from “make-work” to “work-wireless.” Too often, we associate job creation with shovel-ready projects and not information-technology-focused job-training programs that teach skills necessary to help Americans compete with peers in Europe and Asia, including those in intelligent infrastructure projects.
n the United States, there are more than 1,000 community colleges, serving more than 11 million students. With four-year institutions and community-based job-training programs, we can train (and retrain) America’s work force using the tools and techniques that China, India and other global competitors are embracing to become more competitive.
Third, rallying behind a national broadband strategy that helps modernize our nation’s dated IT infrastructure. The U.S. ranks 20th in household broadband penetration, behind South Korea, Canada, the Netherlands and Estonia, according to a Strategy Analytics survey.
If this doesn’t illustrate the need for action, a recent study shows that a tenfold increase in broadband speeds would yield an additional $6 billion a year for existing home broadband users.
The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation estimates that 250,000 jobs are created for every $5 billion invested in broadband deployment — 100,000 direct and indirect jobs from telecom and IT equipment spending, plus an additional 150,000 jobs in “network effects,” spurring new online applications and services.
The Federal Communications Commission is due to unveil its national broadband plan by mid-March. This must be aimed at pushing the United States into the top echelon of countries with widespread next-generation mobile and fixed wireless (and wired) capabilities by 2015.
It’s important to remember that high-tech is a bedrock of American innovation. If we embrace investment in new technologies, businesses and the economy will benefit. And if we combine this investment with the right ideas, public policies and market conditions, the impact on our work force should be vast and far-reaching.
Dean Garfield is president and CEO of the Information Technology Industry Council. Bruce Reed is CEO of the Democratic Leadership Council.
Source: www.politico.com
Last week, Intel announced a $3.5 billion initiative for investment in U.S.-based technology companies, as well as a commitment, with 10 other tech firms, to increase hiring of college graduates. AT&T and Verizon project capital expenditures in 2010 of nearly $35 billion combined.
Fortunately for our nation’s economy, the high-tech playbook is a growth catalyst. After the early-1980s recession, the boom in personal computer and individual content creation — fueled by industry bellwethers like Intel, Apple, Dell, IBM and Microsoft — ushered in a new industry, thousands of jobs and the birth of the digital age.
The same was true in the mid-1990s, as the Internet revolutionized how businesses and consumers access information, perform research and engage in commercial transactions worldwide.
During the past decade, new platforms and technologies — such as virtualization, WiFi, cloud computing, mobility and social networks — have spurred new levels of efficiency, collaboration and cost savings. They created the likes of Google, MySpace, Facebook and Twitter.
A recent Democratic Leadership Council study found that investment and recovery go hand in hand. In the past two decades, job creation has closely tracked business investment in equipment, software and computers. Innovation is especially vital for small businesses, which create most new jobs.
The research firm Gartner estimates that global spending on technology products and services will rise by 4.6 percent to $3.4 trillion this year, after initially predicting 3.3 percent growth. New and emerging markets — including the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China — are expected to be responsible for more than half of all industry growth, according to IDC, a research firm.
While the potential of information and communications technology to drive a job-rich economic recovery looks almost certain, three factors will determine the extent of its success:
First, the degree to which Congress and the Obama administration — working with the private sector — outline and implement a plan for the United States to become the global leader in ICT-driven innovation.
Consider the issue for education. While our nation’s higher education system is the world’s most innovative, the latest scorecard, released by the National Center for Education Statistics, shows that the average score of U.S. eighth-graders in math and science is 520, compared with 530 in Russia, 553 in England and 561 in Japan.
We must embrace what works in the private sector, learn from our closest competitors and invest in programs that ensure our K-12 education system doesn’t fall behind.
Another priority must be our complex corporate-tax system. One-fifth of the U.S. private-sector work force (nearly 22 million in 2006) works for U.S.-based multinational companies. Yet the United States is the only large economy with both a worldwide tax system and a corporate tax rate greater than 30 percent — with enough tax loopholes to support the largest fleet of tax lawyers and accountants in the world.
To compete in the global economy, Washington needs a competitive tax structure that enables us to create jobs, promote innovation and raise living standards.
Second, a shift in mind-set from “make-work” to “work-wireless.” Too often, we associate job creation with shovel-ready projects and not information-technology-focused job-training programs that teach skills necessary to help Americans compete with peers in Europe and Asia, including those in intelligent infrastructure projects.
n the United States, there are more than 1,000 community colleges, serving more than 11 million students. With four-year institutions and community-based job-training programs, we can train (and retrain) America’s work force using the tools and techniques that China, India and other global competitors are embracing to become more competitive.
Third, rallying behind a national broadband strategy that helps modernize our nation’s dated IT infrastructure. The U.S. ranks 20th in household broadband penetration, behind South Korea, Canada, the Netherlands and Estonia, according to a Strategy Analytics survey.
If this doesn’t illustrate the need for action, a recent study shows that a tenfold increase in broadband speeds would yield an additional $6 billion a year for existing home broadband users.
The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation estimates that 250,000 jobs are created for every $5 billion invested in broadband deployment — 100,000 direct and indirect jobs from telecom and IT equipment spending, plus an additional 150,000 jobs in “network effects,” spurring new online applications and services.
The Federal Communications Commission is due to unveil its national broadband plan by mid-March. This must be aimed at pushing the United States into the top echelon of countries with widespread next-generation mobile and fixed wireless (and wired) capabilities by 2015.
It’s important to remember that high-tech is a bedrock of American innovation. If we embrace investment in new technologies, businesses and the economy will benefit. And if we combine this investment with the right ideas, public policies and market conditions, the impact on our work force should be vast and far-reaching.
Dean Garfield is president and CEO of the Information Technology Industry Council. Bruce Reed is CEO of the Democratic Leadership Council.
Source: www.politico.com
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Why does the U.S. need China?
Editor's note: Li Daokui is director of the Center for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University in Beijing and also adviser to the China's Central Bank.
Beijing, China (CNN) -- The United States needs China for two simple reasons: China can make a difference in the world after the financial crisis, and more importantly China's fundamental interests are aligned with the United States.
It is obvious that China can make a difference in the world today and tomorrow. China is the world's leading exporter of manufactured goods. A sudden appreciation of its currency would inevitably export inflation to the rest of the world, which is not welcome by American families struggling to find jobs. China holds the world's largest currency reserves, enough to buy up the share prices in New York or sell down the yield curve of the T-bond.
Halfway into industrialization, China has become one of the largest emitters of global warming gas -- understandable, as it has followed the growth path of the West. Whether China can creatively find a new approach to modernization holds the key to the success of mitigating global warming. Last but not least, developing countries, including those in Africa, are watching carefully what China is doing. If China can be successful in achieving a balanced, sustainable and green growth, many other emerging economies will follow.
Does this mean that the United States and the West have lost their dominance in the world? Not at all! The West still enjoys the highest living standard and best educational achievement, still possesses the world's most important and relevant technologies, be it military or green, and still maintains by far the most formidable military power. Perhaps, most important to me as an economist, the West was not only the builder but also the most skillful mover and shaker in today's international institutions. The United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the G-20 were all initiated in the West. The most skillful professionals working in China are from the West or trained in the West. The most useful working language is English.
The most important point the United States and the West need to understand: In today's post-crisis world, China's fundamental interests are aligned with the West. It is in China's fundamental interest to contribute to the world's economic rebalancing and to continued peace and prosperity.
China's policy makers understand the need to reduce its trade surplus in order to reduce its exposure to international economic volatility. They realize that their household income needs to increase faster in order to boost domestic income and to bring real benefits of economic growth to its population. They also understand that China's growth of energy consumption must come down, relying more upon green energy and recycled materials. This awareness and commitment can be found in black and white in various official policy papers including the recent Guide to the next Five Year Development Program.
In fact, progress has been made in China in rebalancing growth. This year alone, trade surplus is likely to be below four percent of GDP, coming down from nine percent before the finance crisis and five percent last year. Imports are growing much faster than exports. Household consumption is outpacing GDP by five percent.
How have these been achieved? Exchange rate appreciation is not the most important factor. The driving factors are domestic forces. Wage rates of the exporting sector have increased by 20 percent this year. Taxes were cut for some consumption goods. Importing inland regions are encouraged to grow much faster than exporting coastal areas. Structural changes are much more fundamental than nominal appreciation.
The exchange rate dispute is the most counterproductive debate in the world. Appreciation does not work like a magic wand. In the Chinese case, against the background five percent general cost increase and 20 percent exporting sector wage increases, anything beyond a gradual appreciation will directly translate into a price hike to the American or European buyers, since in the short run, the option of switching from Chinese producers to others is not available, and the Chinese firms have to mark up their export prices in order to survive.
The end outcome of such a rapid appreciation is continued trade surplus with inflation in the West, which in turn brings in more expectation of nominal appreciation, causing capital flowing from the United States into China for arbitrage, offsetting the impact of Quantitative Easing (QE2) in the U.S. economy. Moreover, this scenario provides juice to conspiracy theories that renminbi (RMB) appreciation and the QE2 are just contrivances to undermine the Chinese and developing countries' modernization process.
The continued dispute on the RMB exchange rate may well be the saddest tragedy of economic policy making in the post-crisis world, since both the Chinese and U.S. sides share the same fundamental interest of rebalancing trade and growth but in the end ruin each other's endeavors. It is like the captains of two giant ships spending precious time arguing about the best techniques to steer the course and causing the ships to eventually collide.
In a larger context, the G-20 is perhaps the only tangible reward to the world in the wake of the financial crisis. Let us hope the leaders will not waste the precious good will and political capital on senseless issues like the exchange rate. Rather, they need to work on something much more relevant and effective to mitigate global imbalances, to reinvigorate growth and to avoid future crises.
By Li Daokui, Special to CNN
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
Beijing, China (CNN) -- The United States needs China for two simple reasons: China can make a difference in the world after the financial crisis, and more importantly China's fundamental interests are aligned with the United States.
It is obvious that China can make a difference in the world today and tomorrow. China is the world's leading exporter of manufactured goods. A sudden appreciation of its currency would inevitably export inflation to the rest of the world, which is not welcome by American families struggling to find jobs. China holds the world's largest currency reserves, enough to buy up the share prices in New York or sell down the yield curve of the T-bond.
Halfway into industrialization, China has become one of the largest emitters of global warming gas -- understandable, as it has followed the growth path of the West. Whether China can creatively find a new approach to modernization holds the key to the success of mitigating global warming. Last but not least, developing countries, including those in Africa, are watching carefully what China is doing. If China can be successful in achieving a balanced, sustainable and green growth, many other emerging economies will follow.
Does this mean that the United States and the West have lost their dominance in the world? Not at all! The West still enjoys the highest living standard and best educational achievement, still possesses the world's most important and relevant technologies, be it military or green, and still maintains by far the most formidable military power. Perhaps, most important to me as an economist, the West was not only the builder but also the most skillful mover and shaker in today's international institutions. The United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the G-20 were all initiated in the West. The most skillful professionals working in China are from the West or trained in the West. The most useful working language is English.
The most important point the United States and the West need to understand: In today's post-crisis world, China's fundamental interests are aligned with the West. It is in China's fundamental interest to contribute to the world's economic rebalancing and to continued peace and prosperity.
China's policy makers understand the need to reduce its trade surplus in order to reduce its exposure to international economic volatility. They realize that their household income needs to increase faster in order to boost domestic income and to bring real benefits of economic growth to its population. They also understand that China's growth of energy consumption must come down, relying more upon green energy and recycled materials. This awareness and commitment can be found in black and white in various official policy papers including the recent Guide to the next Five Year Development Program.
In fact, progress has been made in China in rebalancing growth. This year alone, trade surplus is likely to be below four percent of GDP, coming down from nine percent before the finance crisis and five percent last year. Imports are growing much faster than exports. Household consumption is outpacing GDP by five percent.
How have these been achieved? Exchange rate appreciation is not the most important factor. The driving factors are domestic forces. Wage rates of the exporting sector have increased by 20 percent this year. Taxes were cut for some consumption goods. Importing inland regions are encouraged to grow much faster than exporting coastal areas. Structural changes are much more fundamental than nominal appreciation.
The exchange rate dispute is the most counterproductive debate in the world. Appreciation does not work like a magic wand. In the Chinese case, against the background five percent general cost increase and 20 percent exporting sector wage increases, anything beyond a gradual appreciation will directly translate into a price hike to the American or European buyers, since in the short run, the option of switching from Chinese producers to others is not available, and the Chinese firms have to mark up their export prices in order to survive.
The end outcome of such a rapid appreciation is continued trade surplus with inflation in the West, which in turn brings in more expectation of nominal appreciation, causing capital flowing from the United States into China for arbitrage, offsetting the impact of Quantitative Easing (QE2) in the U.S. economy. Moreover, this scenario provides juice to conspiracy theories that renminbi (RMB) appreciation and the QE2 are just contrivances to undermine the Chinese and developing countries' modernization process.
The continued dispute on the RMB exchange rate may well be the saddest tragedy of economic policy making in the post-crisis world, since both the Chinese and U.S. sides share the same fundamental interest of rebalancing trade and growth but in the end ruin each other's endeavors. It is like the captains of two giant ships spending precious time arguing about the best techniques to steer the course and causing the ships to eventually collide.
In a larger context, the G-20 is perhaps the only tangible reward to the world in the wake of the financial crisis. Let us hope the leaders will not waste the precious good will and political capital on senseless issues like the exchange rate. Rather, they need to work on something much more relevant and effective to mitigate global imbalances, to reinvigorate growth and to avoid future crises.
By Li Daokui, Special to CNN
Source: CNN
www.cnn.com
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Will the Fed's $900 billion cash injection restart the economy?
The Federal Reserve is pumping vast amounts of "new" money into the economy. Will that solve our financial woes?
Best Opinion: U.S. News & World Report, Reuters, Economist
As many predicted, the Federal Reserve has agreed on another round of quantitative easing — essentially printing "new" money — in a bid to jump start the economy (read more on quantitative easing from The Week). The Fed announced yesterday it would buy up $600 billion of long-term government bonds, or Treasuries, by the middle of 2011 in hopes of driving down rates on mortgages and other debt and spurring investment. That comes on top of an expected $300 billion in buying from earlier programs. Will this massive cash injection be enough to revitalize the economy? (Watch a CNBC discussion about the announcement)
The evidence suggests it won't help much: The Fed surprised everyone by pumping $1 trillion into the economy in March last year, notes Rick Newman at U.S. News & World Report, and while it steadied the stock market, it didn't speed up GDP growth. This round "will probably have far less impact" — mainly because the market was expecting it for months and has already priced it into expectations.
"Why the Fed's quantitative easing is overblown this time"
$600 billion a lot of money — but still too little: Call this quantitive easing "lite," says John Kemp at Reuters. "After all the thunderous commentary" for and against pumping more cash into the economy, the Fed has "labored mightily and brought forth a mouse." Only "shock and awe" could have jolted the market into action. This may "shave more than a few basis points" off interest rates, but the overall effects "will probably be marginal."
"Fed launches QE-lite"
It's already worked: "I'm struck by the extent of the scepticism regarding this action," says The Economist. Sure, the "impact of easing" had already hit the markets. But "that impact is impressive." Equity markets are up and the dollar is down — which will help "domestic firms thinking about hiring and investing." It may not solve our unemployment rate, but "it's not clear that any Fed action" could do that.
"The morning after"
Source:www.theweek.com
Best Opinion: U.S. News & World Report, Reuters, Economist
As many predicted, the Federal Reserve has agreed on another round of quantitative easing — essentially printing "new" money — in a bid to jump start the economy (read more on quantitative easing from The Week). The Fed announced yesterday it would buy up $600 billion of long-term government bonds, or Treasuries, by the middle of 2011 in hopes of driving down rates on mortgages and other debt and spurring investment. That comes on top of an expected $300 billion in buying from earlier programs. Will this massive cash injection be enough to revitalize the economy? (Watch a CNBC discussion about the announcement)
The evidence suggests it won't help much: The Fed surprised everyone by pumping $1 trillion into the economy in March last year, notes Rick Newman at U.S. News & World Report, and while it steadied the stock market, it didn't speed up GDP growth. This round "will probably have far less impact" — mainly because the market was expecting it for months and has already priced it into expectations.
"Why the Fed's quantitative easing is overblown this time"
$600 billion a lot of money — but still too little: Call this quantitive easing "lite," says John Kemp at Reuters. "After all the thunderous commentary" for and against pumping more cash into the economy, the Fed has "labored mightily and brought forth a mouse." Only "shock and awe" could have jolted the market into action. This may "shave more than a few basis points" off interest rates, but the overall effects "will probably be marginal."
"Fed launches QE-lite"
It's already worked: "I'm struck by the extent of the scepticism regarding this action," says The Economist. Sure, the "impact of easing" had already hit the markets. But "that impact is impressive." Equity markets are up and the dollar is down — which will help "domestic firms thinking about hiring and investing." It may not solve our unemployment rate, but "it's not clear that any Fed action" could do that.
"The morning after"
Source:www.theweek.com
Monday, November 8, 2010
Gazprom profits soar despite European price falls
Profits at the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom have leapt 66% in the first half of the year, despite lower gas prices in Europe.
Gazprom supplies more than a quarter of the continent's gas needs.
It said it had sold 19% more gas to European countries, partly because the winter was colder than usual.
However, the average price it charged Europe fell by 23%, but this was more than offset by an increase in the price of gas sold in its domestic market.
As a result, net income for the six months to the end of June increased to 508.2bn roubles ($16.5bn; £10.2bn), compared with 305.7bn roubles during the same period in the previous year.
Falling market share
Gazprom is the world's largest supplier of natural gas. It also has the largest gas reserves of any energy company in the world.
The state-controlled company is hoping to sign a huge deal within the next year to supply gas to the fast-growing market of China.
Earlier this year, it cut supplies to Russia's neighbour Belarus in a row over payment.
Politicians in Europe are unnerved by such moves and want to reduce the continent's dependence on Russia for energy.
Over the past decade, Russia's share of gas imports to western Europe has fallen from 39% to 27%, according to East European Gas Analysis, a US-based firm.
It says Norway's share has risen from 16% to 22% over the same period.
Gazprom supplies more than a quarter of the continent's gas needs.
It said it had sold 19% more gas to European countries, partly because the winter was colder than usual.
However, the average price it charged Europe fell by 23%, but this was more than offset by an increase in the price of gas sold in its domestic market.
As a result, net income for the six months to the end of June increased to 508.2bn roubles ($16.5bn; £10.2bn), compared with 305.7bn roubles during the same period in the previous year.
Falling market share
Gazprom is the world's largest supplier of natural gas. It also has the largest gas reserves of any energy company in the world.
The state-controlled company is hoping to sign a huge deal within the next year to supply gas to the fast-growing market of China.
Earlier this year, it cut supplies to Russia's neighbour Belarus in a row over payment.
Politicians in Europe are unnerved by such moves and want to reduce the continent's dependence on Russia for energy.
Over the past decade, Russia's share of gas imports to western Europe has fallen from 39% to 27%, according to East European Gas Analysis, a US-based firm.
It says Norway's share has risen from 16% to 22% over the same period.
Friday, November 5, 2010
EU warns troubled German bank WestLB over state aid
WestLB, a troubled state-controlled German bank, has been warned it may be wound down if it does not quickly comply with European competition rules.
Competition commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the European Commission had repeatedly asked for a revised restructuring plan, but had not received one from German authorities.
The possibility that WestLB would be broken up was "increasing", he said.
"Time is running out... decisions are required as [soon as] possible."
WestLB transferred about 77bn euro of its toxic and non-strategic assets to a so-called "bad bank" earlier this year.
The Commission, which provisionally approved a restructuring in May 2009, is investigating whether WestLB breached competition rules after receiving an extra 3.4bn euro in state aid.
It said that before it could approve the aid, the bank should consider "further restructuring measures" to address concerns about unfair advantages over other banks, or a gradual reimbursement of the sum.
Mr Almunia also said he had growing doubts that WestLB's business model could restore its viability.
However, WestLB's chief executive Dietrich Voigtlaender said the Commission had failed to present new facts to back up its position.
The German finance ministry said the government did not expect WestLB to collapse and that the bank would be able to meet EU conditions.
Source:BBC
www.bbc.com
Competition commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the European Commission had repeatedly asked for a revised restructuring plan, but had not received one from German authorities.
The possibility that WestLB would be broken up was "increasing", he said.
"Time is running out... decisions are required as [soon as] possible."
WestLB transferred about 77bn euro of its toxic and non-strategic assets to a so-called "bad bank" earlier this year.
The Commission, which provisionally approved a restructuring in May 2009, is investigating whether WestLB breached competition rules after receiving an extra 3.4bn euro in state aid.
It said that before it could approve the aid, the bank should consider "further restructuring measures" to address concerns about unfair advantages over other banks, or a gradual reimbursement of the sum.
Mr Almunia also said he had growing doubts that WestLB's business model could restore its viability.
However, WestLB's chief executive Dietrich Voigtlaender said the Commission had failed to present new facts to back up its position.
The German finance ministry said the government did not expect WestLB to collapse and that the bank would be able to meet EU conditions.
Source:BBC
www.bbc.com
Thursday, November 4, 2010
India IT firms say US rejecting business visas
The US is rejecting a growing number of Indian visa applications and interviews border on interrogations, Indian information technology firms say.
[justify][b]Nasscom[/b], an umbrella organisation of IT firms, said it had written to the US ambassador to convey its concern.
India's government has also been informed, it said. There was no immediate response from the US embassy.
President [b]Barack Obama[/b] begins a three-day India visit on Saturday. It is not known if the issue will come up then.
"[b]Nasscom[/b]... said it had received complaints from member-companies and had taken up the issue 'appropriately' with the US embassy in New Delhi," the Times of India newspaper reported.
"The letter is said to have pointed out that the firms affected are all 'perfectly good companies' which have 'met all guidelines'," the paper added.
India and the US have forged close trade ties in recent years. In 2008, the two countries signed a deal for civil nuclear co-operation.
But, there has been growing concern in Washington that outsourcing to cities such as Bangalore - the IT hub in southern India - is worsening unemployment in the US.
President Obama recently spoke out against outsourcing of American jobs to countries like India and offered tax breaks for those creating jobs in the US.
Also recently, the US Border Security Bill hiked the fees for H1B and L1 business visas, leading to protests from Indian IT firms.
The issues of outsourcing and visa fees are expected to come up in talks during President Obama's visit.
But analysts say the president's drubbing in mid-term elections this week is expected to tie his hands when it comes to bold policy moves on India.
On Wednesday, Indian Foreign Secretary [b]Nirupama Rao[/b] said Delhi was not expecting any "big bang" results from the visit.
She said there would be positive outcomes, but it was not time for another "big bang".
[b]Mr Obama[/b] arrives in Mumbai (Bombay) on Saturday morning where he is due to meet Indian business leaders and address a meeting of the India-US business council.
In Delhi, he is due to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Si[/justify]
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
[justify][b]Nasscom[/b], an umbrella organisation of IT firms, said it had written to the US ambassador to convey its concern.
India's government has also been informed, it said. There was no immediate response from the US embassy.
President [b]Barack Obama[/b] begins a three-day India visit on Saturday. It is not known if the issue will come up then.
"[b]Nasscom[/b]... said it had received complaints from member-companies and had taken up the issue 'appropriately' with the US embassy in New Delhi," the Times of India newspaper reported.
"The letter is said to have pointed out that the firms affected are all 'perfectly good companies' which have 'met all guidelines'," the paper added.
India and the US have forged close trade ties in recent years. In 2008, the two countries signed a deal for civil nuclear co-operation.
But, there has been growing concern in Washington that outsourcing to cities such as Bangalore - the IT hub in southern India - is worsening unemployment in the US.
President Obama recently spoke out against outsourcing of American jobs to countries like India and offered tax breaks for those creating jobs in the US.
Also recently, the US Border Security Bill hiked the fees for H1B and L1 business visas, leading to protests from Indian IT firms.
The issues of outsourcing and visa fees are expected to come up in talks during President Obama's visit.
But analysts say the president's drubbing in mid-term elections this week is expected to tie his hands when it comes to bold policy moves on India.
On Wednesday, Indian Foreign Secretary [b]Nirupama Rao[/b] said Delhi was not expecting any "big bang" results from the visit.
She said there would be positive outcomes, but it was not time for another "big bang".
[b]Mr Obama[/b] arrives in Mumbai (Bombay) on Saturday morning where he is due to meet Indian business leaders and address a meeting of the India-US business council.
In Delhi, he is due to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Si[/justify]
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
Dubai World debt restructuring agreed
State-owned Dubai World has signed up the last remaining creditor to a $23bn (£15bn) debt restructuring.
The last investor - US distressed debt fund Aurelius Capital Management - sold its position to Deutsche Bank, one of the company's main creditors, according to a report in the Financial Times.
The holding company said in September that 99% of its creditors had already agreed to the new repayment terms.
It means Dubai World can now avoid a lengthy tribunal to complete the deal.
Dubai World manages investments for the Emirate of Dubai, including the Dubai ports, foreign investments, and major real estate development such as the famous palm islands.
Debt for equity
Aurelius had bought the debt in the secondary market after the company defaulted on its debts last year, but missed the 9 September deadline to vote for the restructuring.
The terms of the restructuring involve converting $8.9bn of government debt into equity, and would leave Dubai World with $14.4bn of remaining debts.
The news means that a special tribunal, which had been set up to reach a settlement with any creditors that held out from the deal, will no longer be needed.
Meanwhile, there was good news for Dubai on the economic front.
A government spokesman said that he expected a growth rate this year of 2.3%, thanks in part to a 7% rise in population during the first nine months of the year as immigration picked up again.
Meanwhile, Dubai Ports World (a subsidiary of Dubai World) reported that its global container levels had returned to the pre-crisis peak levels of 2008.
The last investor - US distressed debt fund Aurelius Capital Management - sold its position to Deutsche Bank, one of the company's main creditors, according to a report in the Financial Times.
The holding company said in September that 99% of its creditors had already agreed to the new repayment terms.
It means Dubai World can now avoid a lengthy tribunal to complete the deal.
Dubai World manages investments for the Emirate of Dubai, including the Dubai ports, foreign investments, and major real estate development such as the famous palm islands.
Debt for equity
Aurelius had bought the debt in the secondary market after the company defaulted on its debts last year, but missed the 9 September deadline to vote for the restructuring.
The terms of the restructuring involve converting $8.9bn of government debt into equity, and would leave Dubai World with $14.4bn of remaining debts.
The news means that a special tribunal, which had been set up to reach a settlement with any creditors that held out from the deal, will no longer be needed.
Meanwhile, there was good news for Dubai on the economic front.
A government spokesman said that he expected a growth rate this year of 2.3%, thanks in part to a 7% rise in population during the first nine months of the year as immigration picked up again.
Meanwhile, Dubai Ports World (a subsidiary of Dubai World) reported that its global container levels had returned to the pre-crisis peak levels of 2008.
Irish Republic announces record budget cuts
The Irish government has outlined when it will make 15bn euros ($21.3bn; £13.1bn) of budget cuts designed to reduce the country's deficit.
In what it called "a significant frontloading", the government said it would cut 6bn euros in 2011 to try and reduce the deficit to 9.25%-9.5% GDP.
By 2014, the government wants to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP.
It said savings would be made through spending cuts and tax rises and would impact the living standards of all.
Further details of these measures will be released in the government's Four-Year Plan, published later this month.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the cuts underlined the "strength of our resolve to show that the country is serious about tackling our public finance difficulties.
"But our spending and revenues must be more closely aligned. This is the only way to ensure the future well being of our society."
Analysts said the announcement contained few surprises, and that markets were waiting for further details on the spending cuts and tax rises before passing judgement on whether the cuts were realistic.
"I think committing to front-load the cuts sends a good signal to the markets that Ireland is serious about fiscal consolidation," said Oliver Hogan at the Centre of Economics and Business Research.
"I think they're on the right track in terms of what has to be done but they may find it has more of a detrimental effect [on growth] than they're expecting."
A number of countries have announced measures to reduce budget deficits that rose dramatically during the economic downturn, most notably Greece and the UK.
Investor concerns
Earlier on Thursday, yields on Irish 10-year bonds reached a new high of 7.69%.
The move reflected increasing scepticism about the Republic's ability to tackle its problems without outside help.
The Irish Finance Ministry has released its budget early to try to soothe investor concerns as Irish borrowing costs have hit a new high every day so far this week.
The Irish deficit is predicted to be the equivalent of 32% of the country's economic output this year.
It has been pushed up by the cost of government bail-outs of Irish banks. At the end of September, Prime Minister Brian Cowen revealed that taxpayers' total bill for bailing out the banks could reach 50bn euros.
Mr Cowen has vowed to reduce the deficit to below 3% of gross domestic GDP by 2014.
'Huge amount'
European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet earlier said he thought the figure was a sensible target.
"The 15bn... are not in our view insufficient but of course you have to be alert permanently and stand ready to do all that is needed," Mr Trichet told a news conference, shortly after the ECB had announced it was holding interest rates in the eurozone at 1%.
"The market observers, savers, investors are looking with great, great attention to what the minister and the government will say in a few hours," Mr Trichet said.
Ken Wattrett, chief European economist at BNP Paribas, said the government faced a difficult dilemma.
"[15bn euros] is a huge amount - what we're talking about there is something in the region of 10% of GDP in addition to all the measures that have already been delivered," he told the BBC.
"The intention for 2011 is to frontload quite a lot of that adjustment, probably in the region of 4% of GDP.
"[The government] needs to deliver these cuts to stabilise its public finances and win its credibility back, but at the same time it will probably push its economy into a deeper recession."
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
In what it called "a significant frontloading", the government said it would cut 6bn euros in 2011 to try and reduce the deficit to 9.25%-9.5% GDP.
By 2014, the government wants to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP.
It said savings would be made through spending cuts and tax rises and would impact the living standards of all.
Further details of these measures will be released in the government's Four-Year Plan, published later this month.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the cuts underlined the "strength of our resolve to show that the country is serious about tackling our public finance difficulties.
"But our spending and revenues must be more closely aligned. This is the only way to ensure the future well being of our society."
Analysts said the announcement contained few surprises, and that markets were waiting for further details on the spending cuts and tax rises before passing judgement on whether the cuts were realistic.
"I think committing to front-load the cuts sends a good signal to the markets that Ireland is serious about fiscal consolidation," said Oliver Hogan at the Centre of Economics and Business Research.
"I think they're on the right track in terms of what has to be done but they may find it has more of a detrimental effect [on growth] than they're expecting."
A number of countries have announced measures to reduce budget deficits that rose dramatically during the economic downturn, most notably Greece and the UK.
Investor concerns
Earlier on Thursday, yields on Irish 10-year bonds reached a new high of 7.69%.
The move reflected increasing scepticism about the Republic's ability to tackle its problems without outside help.
The Irish Finance Ministry has released its budget early to try to soothe investor concerns as Irish borrowing costs have hit a new high every day so far this week.
The Irish deficit is predicted to be the equivalent of 32% of the country's economic output this year.
It has been pushed up by the cost of government bail-outs of Irish banks. At the end of September, Prime Minister Brian Cowen revealed that taxpayers' total bill for bailing out the banks could reach 50bn euros.
Mr Cowen has vowed to reduce the deficit to below 3% of gross domestic GDP by 2014.
'Huge amount'
European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet earlier said he thought the figure was a sensible target.
"The 15bn... are not in our view insufficient but of course you have to be alert permanently and stand ready to do all that is needed," Mr Trichet told a news conference, shortly after the ECB had announced it was holding interest rates in the eurozone at 1%.
"The market observers, savers, investors are looking with great, great attention to what the minister and the government will say in a few hours," Mr Trichet said.
Ken Wattrett, chief European economist at BNP Paribas, said the government faced a difficult dilemma.
"[15bn euros] is a huge amount - what we're talking about there is something in the region of 10% of GDP in addition to all the measures that have already been delivered," he told the BBC.
"The intention for 2011 is to frontload quite a lot of that adjustment, probably in the region of 4% of GDP.
"[The government] needs to deliver these cuts to stabilise its public finances and win its credibility back, but at the same time it will probably push its economy into a deeper recession."
Source: BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
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