Wednesday, June 12, 2013

What This Economic Recovery Looks Like

Last week’s unemployment report showed a slow but steady economic recovery taking place. While the number of people “discouraged from work” did not change, the economy did create 175,000 jobs, which is a step in the right direction.


The unemployment rate remains high (7.8%) and there are still 11.8 million people unemployed, but the economy is clearly improving. Let’s take a look at how and where these jobs are being created.

One can see that government, education, and healthcare currently make up around 31% of all the jobs in the US (and most government jobs are at the state and local level, by the way).

The healthcare sector has remained a steady growth area during the recession and jobs in this sector remain robust. Government positions have slowed in the last few quarters, driven largely by the sequestration.

Most government jobs are at the state and local level (19.1 million jobs in State and Local LOCM -4.56% Government vs. 2.74 million in Federal agencies).

Retail, leisure, and hospitality make up a large number of jobs (21.5%), and this sector has been growing steadily.

Interestingly, manufacturing jobs have risen to almost 9% of the economy (nearly 500,000 manufacturing jobs have been created since January of 2011).

At the beginning of the recession we saw manufacturing drop to less than 7% of the economy. If we look at trends over the last few years one can see how this recovery is taking hold.

Some of the significant changes which have taken place in the last 2 1/2 years include: Administrative positions have risen by 11% and temporary services have increased by 9.7%.

These trends point out two trends: businesses are staffing back up, and we are moving further into a “contingent work economy.” (Read “The End of a Job as we Know It” for more thoughts on the contingent nature of work).

Construction jobs are coming back (4.2% increase in jobs) and real estate is hot again. In my neighborhood (San Francisco East Bay) there are now dozens of homes open and people are bidding them up once again.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal shows that household wealth has returned to re-recession levels. Jobs in leisure and hospitality are up 4.5% over the period, showing that people are starting to have time and money to enjoy our lives again. Consumer spending is one of the growth drivers of the entire economy.

Of course for those in the 7.8% unemployment life is still tough, but overall this is a sign of economic confidence. Information services and financial service jobs have increased around 2.5% over the period. While these are growing similarly to the rest of the economy, the nature of these jobs has changed dramatically.

We have data which shows that the new software, IT, and financial jobs are much more analytic in nature. And positions in software development are growing rapidly. The economy has created 2 million jobs classified as “managers of business.”

Most companies have hollowed out many of their middle management positions and this data shows that companies have confidence to rebuild their leadership teams.

The US economy has created 1.7 million jobs in “professional and business services,” a 4.6% increase in the last 2 1/2 years (twice the rate of job growth in general).

This is clearly a sign of the increasing “service nature” of work. What does this Mean I talk with hiring managers and HR executives almost every week, and this data reinforces many of the conversations I’ve been having:

1. Businesses are “talent constrained” again, so hiring in professional and technical positions has heated up. Nearly 2/3 of all HR executives tell us their businesses are talent constrained.

2. Businesses need mid-level leadership. While the workforce continues to age, we need more managers. Most companies have flattened their organizations dramatically, creating a need for more mid-level management.

Middle managers (first line supervisors, second line managers) are among the most important roles in business – and we see companies shifting their development resources towards hiring and developing this part of the team.

3. Technical skills are in short supply. As manufacturing, technology, and financial service jobs open up, we see an increase in demand for “data analysts.” Recent research by BurningGlass shows that the most popular new jobs for MBAs are “analyst” positions.

4. Leisure, hospitality, retail, and healthcare continue to be growing segments of the economy. These jobs are critically important to our service economy, and they continue to grow.

In my neighborhood there are more restaurants than ever. These are not high paying jobs, but they’re there.. and can be enriching positions for people who like to serve others or are newly entering the workforce.

forbes.com

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