State Economist Tom Potiowsky said he’s gained confidence in the Oregon economy but cautioned that the economic recovery that’s under way isn’t going to be fast and easy.
“I think the recovery is here, it’s getting legs, but the key word is patience. It’s going to take some time to climb out of this hole,” he said Thursday at the 17th annual Economic Forecast. The event is a joint project of the Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce, the University of Oregon and The Register-Guard.
Donna Hill, a doctor of audiology and an owner of Audiology Professionals of Eugene, was one of about 600 people who came to the Hilton Eugene to hear presentations on the economic outlook for 2011.
Hill said it was the first time she attended the event, and that she came because she wanted to know whether the economy truly is improving.
“I’m seeing an upturn, but I don’t know if that’s factual or not,” she said. “It feels like the people I see are more optimistic, and it feels like our business is better as of January. I’m here to see whether there’s something to support that.”
The consensus of Potiowsky and other members of The Register-Guard board of economists, who were the final speakers at the event, was that there are facts to support Hill’s take on the economy.
Oregon showed year-over-year job growth of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, Potiowsky said.
“That’s the first year-over-year job growth since the first quarter of 2008, he said.
Based on that, job growth in a number of Oregon sectors, and other indicators, he said he thinks the chances of a double-dip recession are rapidly fading.
He is predicting job growth this year of 1.4 percent, rising to 2 percent in 2012 and to 2.1 percent in 2013.
University of Oregon economist Tim Duy agreed that it looks like the nation will avoid a double-dip recession. “I see the beginnings of a real recovery in the making, and real job growth,” said Duy, who was filling in for Portland economist John Mitchell on the board.
Board member Brian Rooney said job losses leveled off last year after an 8 percent job loss in 2009.
“We’ve basically been bouncing along on bottom when it comes to unemployment,” said Rooney, local labor economist with the state Employment Department. Lane County’s unemployment rate was 10.8 percent in December.
But Rooney said he sees some reasons for hope. Wood products employment is up slightly and appears to have stabilized. Food processing and health care were bright spots through the recession, and the University of Oregon “has continued to grow — it’s been a stabilizing effect in this economy,” he said.
Other signs of life around town include development projects by Lane Community College and by businessman Rob Bennett that will fill in two of the eyesore “pits” — buildings knocked down but not replaced — in downtown Eugene, he said.
In addition, the Eugene-Springfield area is seeing the addition of businesses that are regional draws, he said, including PeaceHealth’s regional medical center in Springfield, the Cabela’s outdoor store coming this spring to Gateway Mall, and the new Matthew Knight Arena near the UO campus. They’re capable of drawing people from an area stretching from Medford to Corvallis, he said, giving a boost to local retailers and services.
Rooney said he’s also excited about the software industry in the metro area. Software startups emerge here, then they’re often bought out and the employment disperses, he said. But “the encouraging thing is this keeps happening,” Rooney said.
Earlier in the Economic Forecast, keynote speaker Duncan Wyse, president of the Oregon Business Council, described plans that are under way to create more quality jobs in Oregon. The business council is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan group of top business executives who focus on long-range public policy issues in Oregon, such as education, health care and public finance.
The goal is to create 25,000 jobs per year over the next 10 years, with wages above the national average.
Source: http://www.registerguard.com
“I think the recovery is here, it’s getting legs, but the key word is patience. It’s going to take some time to climb out of this hole,” he said Thursday at the 17th annual Economic Forecast. The event is a joint project of the Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce, the University of Oregon and The Register-Guard.
Donna Hill, a doctor of audiology and an owner of Audiology Professionals of Eugene, was one of about 600 people who came to the Hilton Eugene to hear presentations on the economic outlook for 2011.
Hill said it was the first time she attended the event, and that she came because she wanted to know whether the economy truly is improving.
“I’m seeing an upturn, but I don’t know if that’s factual or not,” she said. “It feels like the people I see are more optimistic, and it feels like our business is better as of January. I’m here to see whether there’s something to support that.”
The consensus of Potiowsky and other members of The Register-Guard board of economists, who were the final speakers at the event, was that there are facts to support Hill’s take on the economy.
Oregon showed year-over-year job growth of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, Potiowsky said.
“That’s the first year-over-year job growth since the first quarter of 2008, he said.
Based on that, job growth in a number of Oregon sectors, and other indicators, he said he thinks the chances of a double-dip recession are rapidly fading.
He is predicting job growth this year of 1.4 percent, rising to 2 percent in 2012 and to 2.1 percent in 2013.
University of Oregon economist Tim Duy agreed that it looks like the nation will avoid a double-dip recession. “I see the beginnings of a real recovery in the making, and real job growth,” said Duy, who was filling in for Portland economist John Mitchell on the board.
Board member Brian Rooney said job losses leveled off last year after an 8 percent job loss in 2009.
“We’ve basically been bouncing along on bottom when it comes to unemployment,” said Rooney, local labor economist with the state Employment Department. Lane County’s unemployment rate was 10.8 percent in December.
But Rooney said he sees some reasons for hope. Wood products employment is up slightly and appears to have stabilized. Food processing and health care were bright spots through the recession, and the University of Oregon “has continued to grow — it’s been a stabilizing effect in this economy,” he said.
Other signs of life around town include development projects by Lane Community College and by businessman Rob Bennett that will fill in two of the eyesore “pits” — buildings knocked down but not replaced — in downtown Eugene, he said.
In addition, the Eugene-Springfield area is seeing the addition of businesses that are regional draws, he said, including PeaceHealth’s regional medical center in Springfield, the Cabela’s outdoor store coming this spring to Gateway Mall, and the new Matthew Knight Arena near the UO campus. They’re capable of drawing people from an area stretching from Medford to Corvallis, he said, giving a boost to local retailers and services.
Rooney said he’s also excited about the software industry in the metro area. Software startups emerge here, then they’re often bought out and the employment disperses, he said. But “the encouraging thing is this keeps happening,” Rooney said.
Earlier in the Economic Forecast, keynote speaker Duncan Wyse, president of the Oregon Business Council, described plans that are under way to create more quality jobs in Oregon. The business council is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan group of top business executives who focus on long-range public policy issues in Oregon, such as education, health care and public finance.
The goal is to create 25,000 jobs per year over the next 10 years, with wages above the national average.
Source: http://www.registerguard.com
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