Friday, January 20, 2012

Economic forecast for CO, U.S. in 2012

DENVER - As a financial expert, he says he's 'cautiously impressed' by the economic recovery of Colorado and the United States.


"[The economy] still faces a lot of challenges. It started with real estate, heavy debt levels and has recently moved toward concerns about Europe.

Despite all of these obstacles, the economy has continued to grow at a fairly modest but steady pace. It's very impressive." Vice President, Economist, and Executive for the Federal Reserve's Denver Branch, Mark Snead said.

Snead is part of an economic forecast panel hosted by Vectra Bank.

The 19th Annual Economic Forecast Breakfast was held Thursday morning. Mark Snead along with President, Development Research Partners, Patricia Silverstein and CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, George Feiger were the keynote speakers at the event.

They say similar to most years, 2012 should provide challenges, bright spots and even the 'unknowns.'

Snead says the economic recovery of the US is very closely tied to housing.

"It's a big problem. It seemingly is an attractable problem but the fundamentals have improved on one side.

Affordability is extremely high, the demographic issues that we've had --people moving in together to increase the size of households-- that is probably going to reverse itself.

So, the fundamentals look good. The problem is just large amount of inventory overhang and it may take two or three selling seasons to clear that inventory. It's a big problem," he said.

Colorado appeared to be slightly behind the rest of the country in the recovery but it has rapidly caught up.

"Actually, in the latest data, it looks like Colorado has accelerated to a rate faster than the nation," Snead said.

Another major factor affecting the recovery of the US economy is the debt crisis in Europe.

"It may be the primary risk factor for the recovery of 2012. We know that there will be problems. I mean they seem almost preordained," Snead said.

Bottom line, there are two main issues in the financial recovery process Snead says.

"There are either financial problems that are filtering through the banking system which would be potentially severe or just a trade problem.I think we could handle a trade problem rather easily. It's the financial side that's an issue just like it was during our recession," he said.

9news.com

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