WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Picture this: Job creation is on the upswing, consumers are spending freely and executives are more confident about their business. Things are looking up.
Sounds like the state of the U.S. economy right now, and it is. Yet that’s also how the economy appeared in the first quarter of last year before summer doldrums set in.
Is history about to repeat itself? Most economists don’t think so, but doubts linger. Gas prices have surged again. Spending is outpacing wage gains at an unsustainable rate.
Key export markets for U.S. goods are slowing. And a warm winter may have exaggerated first-quarter growth.The latest monthly employment report this week should help clarify the economic picture.
Job gains in March that meet or beat Wall Street forecasts could add to the optimistic mood; a disappointing number would renew concerns about the durability of the recovery.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch project that the U.S. added 200,000 jobs in March, down from an average of 245,000 each month from December to February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%.
“We do expect some moderation in March,” said economist Yelena Shulyatyeva of BNP Paribas. “The main idea is that warm winter led to fewer layoffs than usual, so there’s less hiring in the early spring.”
The employment report is the keynote in a heavy week of economic reports. Also on tap are auto sales and key indexes on the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors.
The Federal Reserve will also reveal its outlook on the economy through the minutes of its last major meeting.
Effects of weather
Even if job growth in March ends up around 200,000, investors are likely to cheer. That’s a level consistent with a modestly expanding economy.
What would disappoint — and alarm — Wall Street and Washington is a job increase well below that number. Yet there’s little reason to believe a sharp pullback is in the offing.
The level of applications each week for jobless benefits, for example, is basically unchanged over the past month.
Expectations of more rapid job growth, however, have been tempered by the very same weekly claims data and other reports. They suggest hiring won’t make a major push toward the 300,000 level anytime soon.
That’s why the March employment report could be another tone shifter. A bigger-than-expected increase bolsters the case of an economy getting closer to takeoff.
marketwatch.com
Sounds like the state of the U.S. economy right now, and it is. Yet that’s also how the economy appeared in the first quarter of last year before summer doldrums set in.
Is history about to repeat itself? Most economists don’t think so, but doubts linger. Gas prices have surged again. Spending is outpacing wage gains at an unsustainable rate.
Key export markets for U.S. goods are slowing. And a warm winter may have exaggerated first-quarter growth.The latest monthly employment report this week should help clarify the economic picture.
Job gains in March that meet or beat Wall Street forecasts could add to the optimistic mood; a disappointing number would renew concerns about the durability of the recovery.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch project that the U.S. added 200,000 jobs in March, down from an average of 245,000 each month from December to February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%.
“We do expect some moderation in March,” said economist Yelena Shulyatyeva of BNP Paribas. “The main idea is that warm winter led to fewer layoffs than usual, so there’s less hiring in the early spring.”
The employment report is the keynote in a heavy week of economic reports. Also on tap are auto sales and key indexes on the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors.
The Federal Reserve will also reveal its outlook on the economy through the minutes of its last major meeting.
Effects of weather
Even if job growth in March ends up around 200,000, investors are likely to cheer. That’s a level consistent with a modestly expanding economy.
What would disappoint — and alarm — Wall Street and Washington is a job increase well below that number. Yet there’s little reason to believe a sharp pullback is in the offing.
The level of applications each week for jobless benefits, for example, is basically unchanged over the past month.
Expectations of more rapid job growth, however, have been tempered by the very same weekly claims data and other reports. They suggest hiring won’t make a major push toward the 300,000 level anytime soon.
That’s why the March employment report could be another tone shifter. A bigger-than-expected increase bolsters the case of an economy getting closer to takeoff.
marketwatch.com
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