LONDON: Next year offers only a slight improvement for a global economy hit by recession in Europe and slowing or moribund growth in Asia and the United States, according to Reuters polls of hundreds economists worldwide.
After reaching 3.1 percent this year, world economic growth is expected to hit 3.4 percent in 2013, polls released on Thursday said - a slight cut from July's poll and slower than the International Monetary Fund's latest forecasts of 3.3 percent and 3.6 percent.
While few expected 2012 would be anything other than a difficult year for the world economy, there had earlier been some hope a resilient United States and faster-growing emerging markets would keep up the momentum.
This view has changed with economists polled over the last week saying at least some of the weakness will inevitably spill into next year.
Much will hinge on whether China, Asia's largest economy, can pull out of its downtrend this year, and if the euro zone can contain its prolonged debt crisis.
"As we've moved further through 2012, the assumption we've generally worked off - that next year's got to be better than this - is fading rapidly," said Victoria Clarke, economist at Investec in London.
She cited a few big risks for next year, including the prospect of deep automatic spending cuts in the United States, the so-called fiscal cliff, which would immediately crimp on growth unless politicians agree a deal to avert it.
"We think they'll find some sort of compromise on that. But there are plenty of smaller drags on global growth through next year - there's no question the euro crisis is going to continue," said Clarke.
Europe is expected to remain the biggest drag on the world economy next year, as its sovereign debt crisis continues to stew.
The predicted five worst performing economies in 2013, out of the 19 covered in the poll, are all European, with Italy bottom of the stack.
And the euro zone economy may have to wait until 2014 before it recovers from its decline this year, as few analysts polled by Reuters expect anything other than feeble growth in the quarters ahead.
Only 17 of 71 economists polled said it will grow enough next year to cancel out the 0.5 percent decline predicted for 2012.
The consensus was for 2013 growth of just 0.3 percent next year, in line with last month's poll.
The survey suggested recent aggressive action taken by the European Central Bank will not alone be enough to put the euro zone back on a sound economic footing. Still, easy monetary policy elsewhere in the world should help foster better growth, without really propelling it.
indiatimes.com
After reaching 3.1 percent this year, world economic growth is expected to hit 3.4 percent in 2013, polls released on Thursday said - a slight cut from July's poll and slower than the International Monetary Fund's latest forecasts of 3.3 percent and 3.6 percent.
While few expected 2012 would be anything other than a difficult year for the world economy, there had earlier been some hope a resilient United States and faster-growing emerging markets would keep up the momentum.
This view has changed with economists polled over the last week saying at least some of the weakness will inevitably spill into next year.
Much will hinge on whether China, Asia's largest economy, can pull out of its downtrend this year, and if the euro zone can contain its prolonged debt crisis.
"As we've moved further through 2012, the assumption we've generally worked off - that next year's got to be better than this - is fading rapidly," said Victoria Clarke, economist at Investec in London.
She cited a few big risks for next year, including the prospect of deep automatic spending cuts in the United States, the so-called fiscal cliff, which would immediately crimp on growth unless politicians agree a deal to avert it.
"We think they'll find some sort of compromise on that. But there are plenty of smaller drags on global growth through next year - there's no question the euro crisis is going to continue," said Clarke.
Europe is expected to remain the biggest drag on the world economy next year, as its sovereign debt crisis continues to stew.
The predicted five worst performing economies in 2013, out of the 19 covered in the poll, are all European, with Italy bottom of the stack.
And the euro zone economy may have to wait until 2014 before it recovers from its decline this year, as few analysts polled by Reuters expect anything other than feeble growth in the quarters ahead.
Only 17 of 71 economists polled said it will grow enough next year to cancel out the 0.5 percent decline predicted for 2012.
The consensus was for 2013 growth of just 0.3 percent next year, in line with last month's poll.
The survey suggested recent aggressive action taken by the European Central Bank will not alone be enough to put the euro zone back on a sound economic footing. Still, easy monetary policy elsewhere in the world should help foster better growth, without really propelling it.
indiatimes.com
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