For much of the financial crisis, investors knew there was nothing quite so good as gold. Speculators flocked to buy into the traditional safe-haven investment, and its value in effect tripled between 2007 and 2012.
If the fortunes of the precious metal were an indicator of the state of the world economy back then, they can just as easily be viewed as an easy metaphor for the economic times now.
Global gold demand fell by 15% to a four-year low in 2013, the World Gold Council said on Tuesday, as US investors frantically attempted to offload their holdings to punt on recovering stock markets as signs of growth returned.
The figures cover the buying of coins, bars and sophisticated investment products such as exchange traded funds (ETFs) that own bullion, as well as purchases by central banks and demand from electronics and jewellery manufacturers.
But the net fall in demand last year is essentially explained by the selloff by gold-backed ETFs, which last year disposed of a massive 881 tonnes of gold – worth around $37bn (£22bn) at current prices.
Back in early April 2013, gold investors were sensing their five-year bull market had ended. Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, had dropped hints that a tapering of its monetary stimulus was likely, and when crisis in Cyprus led to speculation that the country would sell its gold reserves to raise cash, various top investment banks advised their clients to sell. Many did.
The price of gold ended March 2013 touching $1,600 an ounce, but by mid-April it was worth less than $1,400. By the end of 2013 it was changing hands at less than $1,200 an ounce, although the price has rallied back above $1,300 this year.
In contrast, on Wall Street, 2013 saw Standard & Poor's 500 stock index soar by almost 30%, while in London the FTSE 100 gained 14%. Robin Bhar, a gold analyst at the investment bank SocGen, said:
"Gold's role as a safe haven investment is diminishing.Equity markets are soaring and as gold gives no return [other than if the price rises] we are seeing a move into other asset classes. Generally we don't see any bullish catalyst for the gold price."
However, despite the widespread scepticism about the prospects of investing in bullion – 2013's losses added up to the largest annual drop since 1981 – there are still some who have continued to believe.
After cutting his holdings of the precious metal in half in the first part of last year, billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson has maintained his $1.3bn stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded product backed by the metal.
Central banks also raised gold reserves in aggregate for the fourth year on the trot in 2013, according to the World Gold Council report, albeit with the net gain of 369 tonnes being 32% lower than 2012's rise.
Tom Kendall, head of precious metals research at Credit Suisse, said: "[Central banks buying gold] goes back to the financial crisis, when emerging-market central banks realised that they were very heavily exposed to US treasuries.
They wanted to diversify and that came in a number of stages. They took euro-denominated bonds, but then came the euro crisis. They increased their weighting in smaller, but still liquid, currencies such as Australian and Canadian dollars, but that was done right at the top of the commodity cycle [both countries have large natural resources sectors].
Some central banks also increased their holdings of gold, but a lot of that buying was also done towards the top of the bull market.
The motivation to diversify remains but given last year's poor performance and heightened volatility we think most central bank reserve managers will remain shy of gold until it is much clearer that a solid floor [to its price] has been established."
Also still in the market for gold during 2013 were consumers, who generated a 21% increase in demand for jewellery and coins to an all-time high of 3,863.5 tonnes – perhaps also illustrating their returning confidence in the world economy.
In China, consumers bought heavily, meaning the country overtook India to become the world's largest gold market as falling prices attracted buyers.
The World Gold Council report added: "Much of the [consumer] growth was concentrated in the first half of the year, unsurprisingly given the sharp declines in the price in April and June, which prompted a swift and strong reaction from consumers in the more price-sensitive markets such as India and China.
The second half of the year saw this trend continue as the impact of lower prices was felt more globally, particularly in the jewellery sector."
The strong demand for gold in China – routinely reaching a peak around the Chinese new year, which fell on 31 January this year – is viewed by some analysts as the explanation behind gold's rally so far this year.
They also say that fears that the world's second largest economy might also be in line for a financial correction are prompting the country's investors to urgently buy gold as a form of insurance, while Chinese investors may also be attracted because there are far fewer ways of investing personal money in the country than in other parts of the world.
theguardian.com
If the fortunes of the precious metal were an indicator of the state of the world economy back then, they can just as easily be viewed as an easy metaphor for the economic times now.
Global gold demand fell by 15% to a four-year low in 2013, the World Gold Council said on Tuesday, as US investors frantically attempted to offload their holdings to punt on recovering stock markets as signs of growth returned.
The figures cover the buying of coins, bars and sophisticated investment products such as exchange traded funds (ETFs) that own bullion, as well as purchases by central banks and demand from electronics and jewellery manufacturers.
But the net fall in demand last year is essentially explained by the selloff by gold-backed ETFs, which last year disposed of a massive 881 tonnes of gold – worth around $37bn (£22bn) at current prices.
Back in early April 2013, gold investors were sensing their five-year bull market had ended. Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, had dropped hints that a tapering of its monetary stimulus was likely, and when crisis in Cyprus led to speculation that the country would sell its gold reserves to raise cash, various top investment banks advised their clients to sell. Many did.
The price of gold ended March 2013 touching $1,600 an ounce, but by mid-April it was worth less than $1,400. By the end of 2013 it was changing hands at less than $1,200 an ounce, although the price has rallied back above $1,300 this year.
In contrast, on Wall Street, 2013 saw Standard & Poor's 500 stock index soar by almost 30%, while in London the FTSE 100 gained 14%. Robin Bhar, a gold analyst at the investment bank SocGen, said:
"Gold's role as a safe haven investment is diminishing.Equity markets are soaring and as gold gives no return [other than if the price rises] we are seeing a move into other asset classes. Generally we don't see any bullish catalyst for the gold price."
However, despite the widespread scepticism about the prospects of investing in bullion – 2013's losses added up to the largest annual drop since 1981 – there are still some who have continued to believe.
After cutting his holdings of the precious metal in half in the first part of last year, billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson has maintained his $1.3bn stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded product backed by the metal.
Central banks also raised gold reserves in aggregate for the fourth year on the trot in 2013, according to the World Gold Council report, albeit with the net gain of 369 tonnes being 32% lower than 2012's rise.
Tom Kendall, head of precious metals research at Credit Suisse, said: "[Central banks buying gold] goes back to the financial crisis, when emerging-market central banks realised that they were very heavily exposed to US treasuries.
They wanted to diversify and that came in a number of stages. They took euro-denominated bonds, but then came the euro crisis. They increased their weighting in smaller, but still liquid, currencies such as Australian and Canadian dollars, but that was done right at the top of the commodity cycle [both countries have large natural resources sectors].
Some central banks also increased their holdings of gold, but a lot of that buying was also done towards the top of the bull market.
The motivation to diversify remains but given last year's poor performance and heightened volatility we think most central bank reserve managers will remain shy of gold until it is much clearer that a solid floor [to its price] has been established."
Also still in the market for gold during 2013 were consumers, who generated a 21% increase in demand for jewellery and coins to an all-time high of 3,863.5 tonnes – perhaps also illustrating their returning confidence in the world economy.
In China, consumers bought heavily, meaning the country overtook India to become the world's largest gold market as falling prices attracted buyers.
The World Gold Council report added: "Much of the [consumer] growth was concentrated in the first half of the year, unsurprisingly given the sharp declines in the price in April and June, which prompted a swift and strong reaction from consumers in the more price-sensitive markets such as India and China.
The second half of the year saw this trend continue as the impact of lower prices was felt more globally, particularly in the jewellery sector."
The strong demand for gold in China – routinely reaching a peak around the Chinese new year, which fell on 31 January this year – is viewed by some analysts as the explanation behind gold's rally so far this year.
They also say that fears that the world's second largest economy might also be in line for a financial correction are prompting the country's investors to urgently buy gold as a form of insurance, while Chinese investors may also be attracted because there are far fewer ways of investing personal money in the country than in other parts of the world.
theguardian.com
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