Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Japan Exports Rise More Than Forecast on Shipments to U.S.

Japanese exports rose more than forecast in April, providing support for an economy that’s expanded for two straight quarters after a recession in 2014.

The value of overseas shipments rose 8 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday, compared with a median estimate for a 6 percent increase. Imports slid 4.2 percent, leaving a 53.4 billion yen ($440 million) trade deficit. Japan’s exports exceeded imports in March for the first time in almost three years.

Strengthening large exporting companies has been one of the pillars of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic policies as the yen’s decline boosts the competitiveness of Japanese products overseas.

 The International Monetary Fund said on May 22 that weaker-than-expected growth in China and the U.S. could trip Japan’s export-led recovery.

 “Japan’s economy will be more robust this year, led by domestic consumption and external demand,” said Yoshitaka Suda, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc.

 “We think that the U.S. economy will continue to recover moderately, helping to boost Japan’s exports.” The Topix index of stocks was up 0.6 percent after the yen weakened as a report showed U.S. inflation firmed and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she expects to raise interest rates this year.

The yen has lost 16 percent against the dollar in the last year, and was trading 0.2 percent down at 121.74 at 9:29 a.m. in Tokyo.

Rising Volumes

Shipments to the U.S. rose 21 percent, and those to China climbed 2.4 percent from a year earlier. Export volume was up 1.8 percent. A decline in oil prices contributed to the fall in imports, with the value of crude oil imports down almost 35 percent, even as volume rose 9.1 percent.

Motor vehicle exports were the biggest contributor to the increase, rising 7.2 percent. The value of shipments of cars to the U.S. and the European Union rose, while to China they fell almost 50 percent.

Import growth will remain weak as the effects of cheaper energy prices spread to a wider range of items, according to Nomura’s Suda, who sees the 2015 trade balance returning to a surplus after four years of deficits.

Japan’s economy expanded 0.6 percent from the previous quarter in the three months through March, beating forecasts, with net exports subtracting 0.2 percentage point from growth. The IMF said Japan’s economy will grow about 1 percent in 2015 and 1.25 percent in 2016 due to a recovery in exports and stronger domestic consumption.

bloomberg.com

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