Saturday, June 4, 2011

Jobs report fuels doubts for recovery

WASHINGTON -- The nation's job market took a sharp turn for the worse last month as employers abruptly curbed their hiring and the unemployment rate rose -- grim evidence that the economic recovery is faltering.

The new Labor Department report, which showed the unemployment rate edging upward to 9.1 percent, was bad news for millions of Americans seeking work and for the hundreds of thousands of newly minted college graduates whose hopeful prospects are now increasingly uncertain.

But beyond those looking for work, the downturn in hiring signaled continuing troubles for the rest of the nation: A weaker economy -- and the increased risk of sliding into a new recession -- reduces the likelihood that personal income will rise or that families will better themselves financially in other ways.

In recent days, an array of data has pointed to a slowdown in manufacturing and consumer spending, as well as persistent weakness in the depressed housing market.

Employers in May added just 54,000 to their payrolls, less than half what's needed just to keep pace with growth in the working-age population. The size of the downturn was all the more unsettling because it came after three straight months of solid payroll increases averaging 220,000 a month and had led many analysts to believe the job market was turning the corner.

It was the second month in a row that the jobless rate climbed, though: After steadily declining during the winter, the unemployment figure rose from 9 percent in April and 8.8 percent in March.

"No one knows on one month's data ... but this one is a real sign of fragility and danger," said Ron Blackwell, chief economist at the AFL-CIO. "Basically, this is what economic stagnation feels like."

Wall Street analysts were braced for a weak jobs report, but the payroll numbers came in even smaller than the lowered expectations from analysts, who on average predicted gains of 160,000 jobs in May. Stocks have broadly retreated in recent days with the spate of bad news.

Further declines in stocks could sap consumer spending even more, at a time many families are already feeling poorer, with home prices still declining in many places and wages showing little growth. Hourly earnings for all employees on private-sector payrolls averaged $22.98 last month. That was up 41 cents from a year ago -- or 1.8 percent, which is below the current pace of inflation.

The overall labor force -- those working or looking for jobs -- grew by 272,000 to 153.7 million in May. The more people enter or re-enter the labor force, the stronger the pressure for unemployment to rise unless job growth keeps pace. And in the coming months, the labor market will be flooded with young graduates from high school and colleges. An estimated 1.7 million students were projected to earn bachelor's degrees in the 2010-11 academic year, with most of them graduating in May and June.

The number of officially unemployed held steady at about 13.9 million last month. But the share of those who have been without work for six months or more jumped to 45.1 percent, near a record high. The ranks of part-timers who said they couldn't find full-time jobs stood at 8.5 million last month. And there were 822,000 discouraged workers who have stopped looking for jobs because they saw little hope of getting hired.

Source: www.timesunion.com

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